Saxo Market Call

Yen spinning into the abyss on rising global yields.

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Mjlymo   -

Today we look at a fresh pop in global yields helping to drive a sentiment shift lower, although financial conditions and volatility have yet to show any real new unease. We also look at the Lawrence Summers Group arguing that rents are a key inflation driver and that inflation risks becoming unanchored, requiring a real "Volcker moment" for the Fed to get ahead of the curve. Elsewhere, high energy prices are an important market risk, while metals are stumbling after a big pull higher in copper last week. In FX, the JPY is spinning into the abyss on the rise in global yields while sterling is in focus after Boris Johnson survived a leadership vote. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Equities climb wall of inflation, yield rise worries

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3x1WZox   -

Today we look at a market posting a strong session yesterday as it brushes aside the pressure from a fresh pop in commodity prices, especially crude oil, and the general rise in global bond yields. Market sentiment and the recently easing financial conditions and especially volatility face a key test today in the form of the latest US payrolls and earnings data and the May ISM Services survey. We also break down yesterday's OPEC+ meeting, which agreed on a production increase, but one that looks like political theater given that the cartel can't produce its current quotas. Copper popping higher, FX themes, earnings up next week and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Yields jump back higher, curbing market enthusiasm

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3GKzCo0   -

Today we look at a surprisingly strong US ISM Manufacturing report for May helping to further boost the comeback in US treasury yields and capping a choppy equity market session in the US, with rather more important US data coming up tomorrow in the form of May payrolls and earnings and the ISM Services. Elsewhere, we look at the strong easing in financial conditions of the last couple of weeks, the important OPEC meeting today, key tech stocks that are getting their financial priorities in order, and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Cue QT as US yields the focus across markets through Friday US data

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3aD70kB   -

Today we look at yesterday's choppy market session, which was buoyed off the lows by a crushing blow to Brent crude prices intraday on a story that OPEC may be ready to exempt Russia's production and allow for production increases from Saudi Arabia and other members. But is there really any spare capacity that can come online? We also look at strong US data points yesterday supporting the rise in US treasury yields and whether we are in for another narrative shift across markets if yields are set to rise further just after consensus was developing that yields had reached a major top. The dump lower in wheat prices, perspective on MongoDB ahead of its earnings report, FX and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Crude awakening, Biden summons Powell to Oval Office

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3x0MxP7   - 

Today we look at the huge fresh surge in crude oil prices as Europe moves ahead with further restrictions on Russian oil imports. This is providing a headwind for risk sentiment, as is a jump in US yields after the US Fed's Waller talked up several 50 basis point hikes and Biden summoned Fed Chair Powell for a rare meeting in the Oval Office today. In equities, we look at rebound behaviors within historic bear markets as this is now the 15th worst drawdown in US equity market history since 1929. Wheat, industrial metals, the USD and FX themes, corporate credit and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Where does this squeeze get a nosebleed?

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Gubx4q   -

Today we look at the squeeze in equity markets that extended aggressively into the close of last week, with this week off to a strong start, in part on hopes for a shift in China's covid policy. We also look at the dissonances in the narrative should China drive new global demand that reaggravates inflationary dynamics as some of the recent market rally has been on hopes that inflation fears and anticipated Fed tightening policy have peaked for the cycle. We also highlight the stress in the VC space, Hungary's Orban boxing above his weight class and risks to HUF, the dynamics in the crude market as Brent posted its second highest weekly close for the cycle last week, earnings ahead and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Special Edition: Are we set for one of the great bear markets of the century?

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3wLrXkI   -

This Special Edition podcast features Peter Garnry, Saxo's head of Quant and Equity Strategy who offers his perspective on the status of the current US equity market drawdown and what makes it unlike any other market drawdown, relative to the current economic backdrop, since at least the 1980's and even the early 1970's. That's because we have nearly reached classic bear market status (a -20% drop from the top) even with a US economy that has yet to roll over and a Fed that is still bent on tightening policy further. We also look at why this drawdown is likely to achieve "top"-five status among bear markets of the last century as inflation is likely to continue even on any softening growth, preventing the kind of QE and rate cut response that has driven the levering up and serial asset price bubbles since the mid-late 1990's. This episode was recorded on Wednesday, May 25, with John J. Hardy hosting.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Special Edition: Technical analysis with Kim Cramer Larsson

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3sXgcq8   -

This Special Edition podcast features Kim Cramer Larsson, Saxo's head of Technical Analysis who takes us through the technical chart outlook for a wide array of assets including the S&P 500, DAX, Brent Crude, US 10-year treasury yields, EURUSD and other FX pairs, with an eye on key support and resistance levels, trend status and a flexible outlook on scenarios that could develop from here.  This episode was recorded on Wednesday, May 25, with John J. Hardy hosting.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic