Saxo Market Call

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Rp7o5z   -

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Today, a look at the US 10-year Treasury benchmark reaching the 4.0% milestone for the first time for this cycle after a remarkable surge in yields in recent weeks. It's worth considering the 1987 experience of bond markets flip-flopping in their correlation with equities and whether we could be set for a similar flip-flop if risk sentiment worsens further. Also, note that many speculative corners of the market were bid yesterday even as the action soured late and worsened still overnight as the US dollar continued surging - especially against the Chinese yuan overnight. Much more on today's pod, which is a solo flight with John J. Hardy hosting.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3xSnZYU   -

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Today we look at the equity market's precise test of the cycle lows yesterday and brightening sentiment overnight, despite the fresh surge in US treasury yields and the US dollar yesterday. An increasingly inverted VIX forward curve suggests that the market low may be close in time, if possibly not in price. We also look at signals from the US Consumer Confidence as the September reading is due today, break down broader commodity performance since commodities peaked, update the crude oil outlook after the recent price plunge, highlight upcoming event risks on the economic calendar and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3CbVNT2   -

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Today we look at very weak global sentiment as the US dollar and US treasury yields continue to soar, taking US equities to the key cycle lows as we wonder what shape the capitulation will take - a quick test and reverse or a more profound move driven by poor liquidity? Elsewhere, we note sterling's historic drop and suggest that it is time for the Bank of England to step in with an emergency rate hike - or else. Crude oil, gold, stocks to watch today (including Apple with some concern around iPhone 14 orders) and more are on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3BYiSaT   -

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Equities are sliding further yesterday and today as the market is rattled by sizeable upwards moves in the long end of the US yield curve with the US 10-year pushing beyond 3.7%. We also go through the series of central bank events yesterday from various rate decisions and most importantly the historic JPY intervention by the Bank of Japan. In addition we take a look at commodities and in particularly the European gas market which is set for its fourth straight weekly loss. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John Hardy on FX and hosting.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3r040Du   -

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The FOMC delivered a hawkish message to the market sending equities and bonds lower. Russia also announced a partial mobilization of its reservists increasing the stake in its war in Ukraine impacting commodities. We go through the details of yesterday's FOMC decision and details, and what knock-on effects they have caused throughout the various markets. We also discuss BOJ's decision to stay firm on its rate policy putting more pressure on JPY. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole Hansen on commodities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Bwpyws   -

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Today we look at markets trading nervously ahead of tonight's FOMC meeting, as we wonder how the Fed can maintain a hawkish tone relative even to the recent sharp rise in expectations. The new "dot plot" forecasts for the Fed funds rate by the end of this year will be key on that front on top of whether the Fed hikes 100 basis points or the more likely 75 basis points today. We also look at the immediate impact on sentiment in Europe and on wheat as Russia has announced a partial mobilization this morning . Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3QX06Gd   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo  - 

Today we look at the market putting on a show of resilience ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow, as we break down where to look for the Fed delivering a hawkish surprise (assuming they will be at pains to avoid a dovish one). The Riksbank hiked 100 basis points during the podcast recording. Elsewhere, we look at US housing as one of the better leading indicators for the equity market, the latest on crude oil, natural gas, and softs, and interesting FX stories aside from the obsessive focus on the USD. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3dmttnu     -

Click here to open an account with Saxo  - 

Today we look at the weak equity market as traders nervously await a raft of central bank meetings this week as most are set to tighten rates further. In FX, we note the interesting reduction in euro shorts in the US currency futures positioning as the euro remains resilient, with most of the USD long position there expressed in GBPUSD and USDJPY. In commodities, we focus on longer term support for copper, while the equities focus this week is on names like Sea Limited, US homebuilders with the backdrop of US housing data, and Amazon. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on Commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic