Saxo Market Call

Yield rise accelerates. When do the consequences arrive?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3qHZ5r5   

Today we look at the latest acceleration higher in US treasury yields, with significant portions of the US yield curve now inverted, which often precedes an eventual recession, if with a highly variable lag. Also, as yields rise, the yen weakens due to the Bank of Japan's policy of capping bond yields, with the BoJ out overnight intervening to keep yields from rising, helping to trigger yet another leg lower in the nose-diving Japanese yen. We also look at commodity volatility, key equity stories and the week ahead in earnings and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Quarter end rushing into view as markets at tipping point

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LccMqa   -

Today we look at the US market poised at critical market resistance as the Powell Fed has yet to get ahead of the curve, constantly one step behind. If the market doesn't roll over here, the risk could rise of an escalation from the Fed to establish credibility. We imagine what that could look like while also mulling the current status of financial conditions, risks of portfolio rebalancing into quarter end after a brutal quarter for bonds and fresh signs of an extremely tight US labor market. Preview of earnings and macro calendar event risks for next week and more are also on the today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

The 1994 Greenspan Fed versus the 2022 Powell Fed

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LdAmTg    -

Today we compare and contrast the 1994 rate hike cycle under Chair Greenspan, a highly pre-emptive cycle that managed a a soft landing, with the 2022 Fed cycle, which sees the Fed badly behind and needing to chase to catch up with the curve. We also look at next key levels for US treasury yields, noting a very strong 20-year treasury auction yesterday, look at select hydrogen names, NIO, a busy macro calendar today and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

A dangerous game.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3wqnHIJ   -

Today we look at whether the markets and the Fed are engaged in a "dangerous game" as the Fed continues to ratchet its rhetoric in the direction of ever more hawkishness and yet somehow remains behind the curve as the market continues to climb. Eventually, the Fed must catch up to recapture the credibility that continues to elude it. We drill down into specific equity stories like Adobe and NVidia, look at the historical market performance under varying financial conditions and assess the latest on crude oil and food commodities at risk from the war in Ukraine. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen  on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Until something breaks...

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3CZhqVI   -

Today we look at Fed Chair Powell once again upping the hawkish ante as he guided the market on the potential for multiple 50-basis-point rate hikes, and therewith lifting the entire US yield curve aggressively. We look at whether this Fed is set to tighten policy "until something breaks" and perhaps is surprised at how little is so far breaking despite the backdrop, with equities particularly resilient. We also look into key equity stories from Nike and Boeing to Chinese names and Adobe, the risk of Russian default and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Pivotal week ahead after massive bear squeeze last week

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3woFAHY   -

Today we break down last week's remarkable comeback in global equity markets, although one that still leaves many prominent sectors down on the month-to-date. An extra focus on commodities today as the trauma suffered in the markets after the Russian invasion of Ukraine triggered not only tremendous volatility, but a significant reduction in open interest. The US dollar is also at a pivotal spot after last week's action. This and more in today's pod, which features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Massive options witching today to see market pivot?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3CRCZat    -

Today we wonder whether the witching of colossal options exposure in the US will provide a market pivot, we look at portions of the US yield curve inverting, dovish BoE guidance, a massive dovish blast from the Bank of Japan, FedEx demonstrating the difficult operating environment as margin pressures weigh, freight rates, crude oil, earnings and macro calendar next week and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Fed waxes hawkish, short squeeze continues

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/363MozS   -

The Fed hiked 25 basis points as expected, but guided fairly hawkish, especially on its dot plot of forecasts for 2023 and in signaling that QT could be set to begin as soon as the May meeting, and at a pace that would be faster than the previous tightening in 2017-19. While equities somehow squeezed higher, we remain very cautious. We also look at falling wheat prices, the gold rebound attempt, FX reaction to the FOMC, key equity stories including FedEx earnings up today and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic