Saxo Market Call

This market is deep in la-la land

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3JjMB07   -

Today we wax extremely cautious on the market, which has too aggressively climbed the wall of worry of late even if we were to pretend that the Russian invasion of Ukraine had not happened (many market have come full circle since that momentous and tragic event). That's because we also need to consider the implications of a much tighter Fed going forward, starting with tonight's FOMC meeting, margin pressures and other factors. We also look at worrying signs of market dysfunction, from the recent Nickel blow-up, to chaos in a VIX-tracking ETF and commodity traders struggling to raise enough capital. The three worry-warts on today's pod are Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

The ”everything is falling” market

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3JcoXmj   -

Today we look at "everything down" as bonds, stocks and commodities are all generally selling off, a remarkable backdrop as we barrel into tomorrow's FOMC meeting with yields near or at cycle highs along the entire US yield curve. We also discuss crude oil and related products amidst signs of demand destruction, equity sectors that have perhaps yet to absorb the full impact of the war in Ukraine, Volkswagen's results and outlook, Russia heading toward a debt default, currencies and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Challenging week ahead with FOMC and Ukraine risks

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3CCzchi   -

Today we are discussing China's lockdown of Shenzhen, Tencent's 10% plunge in Hong Kong trading, FOMC rate decision on Wednesday, JPY weakness being a commodity importer, Nickel contracts on LME still being closed today, gold's recent weakness despite the ongoing war in Ukraine, Volkswagen earnings and takeover rumours of Just Eat Takeaway Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

ECB turns hawkish, US CPI gallops, and Chinese tech skids

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3pSKokv   -

Financial markets are settling down compared to the past two weeks' volatility but de-risking going into the weekend is very a theme that could dominate today's price action. Chinese technology stocks are today's biggest mover down 5% in Hong Kong as the SEC announced yesterday five Chinese ADRs (Chinese stock listings in the US) that could be delisted if they do not comply with the new US auditing rules for foreign companies; in total 270 Chinese companies are at risk of delisting. In today's podcast we also talk about ECB's hawkish surprise and the galloping US inflation impacting the US yield curve. In commodities we look at a hectic week including the blowup in nickel LME futures. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Risk sentiment rips ahead of ECB

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3hU8Iy7   -

Today we look at a robust bounce in risk sentiment on arguably rather dubious triggers yesterday, as oil prices plunged over 20 dollars at one point, the bottom fell out of gold, and the euro and European equities sharply extended their bounce from cycle lows earlier this week. We also preview today's ECB meeting, look at the potential impact on green transformation stocks and EU sovereign bonds from the new EU fiscal push, discuss rising yields and credit spreads, and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Ripple effects from commodities volatility continue

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3tA3g9a    -

Today we look at the ongoing chop-fest in equities, with Chinese equities roiled heavily overnight after the US closed at a new cycle low yesterday, but with Europe trying to put a brave face on the situation this morning. We assess exposures to Russian exports after the UK and US moved to ban Russian oil imports. We also discuss the financial risk as even natural hedgers are getting margin calls on their hedging of physical production, the latest sectors under pressure as jet fuel prices skyrocket, EU joint debt issuance plans boosting the euro and peripheral currencies, the earnings and macro calendar and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

US capitulation, Nickel madness, EU joint debt blast

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Mz3ea8   -

Today we look at the continuing wild ride for global markets as commodities price movements have become so extreme that things are beginning to break in places - especially in the Nickel market, where a short squeeze triggered a shutdown as we were recording the podcast. We also looked at the live market reaction while recording to news of a massive new joint EU debt issuance that drove a sharp sentiment shift this morning in Europe. A dive into energy themes, wheat, Russian default risks, US treasuries and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. 

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Commodity price spike risks financial crisis and recession

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/35BYFvd   -

Today we look at the impact of a further spike in energy prices as European natural gas trades at impossible levels and global crude oil prices jump on talks of a ban of Russian crude oil imports. In particular, we flag the risk of not only a real growth recession if energy prices stay here or head higher, but also a financial crisis. Food price rises are even more alarming on humanitarian concerns. How the situation is filtering into FX markets and the particularly slow-to-react US equity market also in focus. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic