Saxo Market Call

Wheat price spike turning dire

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3CbnKZL   -

Today we look at the lay of the land as Russia's assault on Ukraine continues, especially the dire impact in the wheat market, which has lurched into an historic spike as the market goes limit up in Chicago overnight. We also look at the ongoing impact in energy markets, the curious lack of overall weak risk sentiment in equities despite strong signs of risk aversion in some of our indicators, today's US jobs report and macro data and earnings releases next week. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Commodities are searching for the breaking point

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3KflenU    -

Uncertainty is still extremely high with key commodity markets across coal, natural gas, oil and wheat going vertical hitting companies and households around the world. We have entered the phase where these commodity prices are causing real demand destruction and raising the probability of a recession. We also talk about the rebound in equities amid potential new peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, and Powell's speech that the US economy can absorb higher interest rates. Overnight, MSCI and Russell have decided to remove all Russian equities from their equity benchmark indices effective 9 March with the value of all Russian equities being put at zero on 7 March. On bonds we cover the recent volatility and pricing of rate hikes both in the US and Europe. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole Hansen on commodities and Althea Spinozzi on fixed-income.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

We are not buying this dip

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3IDrg1h    -

Today we look at energy markets soaring as "self-sanctioning" is taking hold in much of the oil market as importers and refiners refuse to load Russian oil cargoes, and as other countries are rushing out of Russian exposure. In equities, we maintain a very cautious stance as markets need to be careful in trying to anticipate coming easing measures to address systemic concerns triggered by the destruction of Russian assets in the global banking system. Risks for the euro, where we are focusing in equities, caution on crypto and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

The rush out of Russia.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/35IPhFW   -

Today we look at markets trying to maintain a positive mood despite the terrible realities on the ground in Ukraine, the widening rush by companies to disassociate themselves with Russia, signs of systemic risk cropping up in the banking system, the commodity focus in FX, a warning for the crypto crowd, whether markets are justified in marking the Fed terminal rate lower as Fed Chair Powell set for two days of testimony before Congress tomorrow and Thursday in the wake of tonight's State of the Union address and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Sanctions slam the door on Russia.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3M4NyeC   -

After the sanctions on Friday underwhelmed, Western powers drew up a comprehensive list of sanctions at the weekend that look set to largely shut Russian access to the global financial system, though important details are not yet clear. Outside of an enormous drop in the Russian ruble, one that mobilized an enormous 1,150 bp rate hike to 20% by the Russian central bank, fallout across markets is quite muted. Today, we sort through the various market reactions and look at the implications of a historic speech by German Chancellor Scholz at the weekend, one that signals an entirely new stance on defense from Germany. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Market sell-off reverses on milder US sanctions than feared

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LYXCWm   -

Today we look at the massive market reversal yesterday as markets rallied hard off new lows, with the improved sentiment inspired at least in part by the US avoiding the most severe options in its new list of sanctions on Russia. Elsewhere, we look at the situation largely failing to impact Fed rhetoric or expectations, the intense focus on commodity markets, with stakes high for the global economy from soaring energy prices. We focus on single stock equity stories and wonder whether LNG stocks may get a boost if Europe seeks to diversify its energy supplies. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Markets and economies ill-prepared for war

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3sdmWQM   -

Today's podcast looks at where the focus for markets lies in the wake of Russian forces attacking Ukraine overnight, a move Ukraine is calling a full-scale invasion. The next critical step will be the scale of Western sanctions and the degree to which Western powers can get on the same page as any real escalation in sanctions will exact a hefty toll on the economic outlook if actual flows of Russian exports of commodities are in the firing line. We discuss the impact and the risks across asset classes in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

When geopolitical fear levels fade, CB expectations quickly spring back.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3p5rTZJ   -

Today we look at the market trying to find its feet as the Western sanctions against Russia's latest moves in the disputed eastern Ukrainian regions were seen as relatively measured. At the same time, central bank tightening expectations are picking up quickly again and the US yield curve has re-flattened sharply. Elsewhere, we look at the risks of sustained market volatility, high EU energy and power prices as far as the eye can see, gold, agricultural commodities, equity earnings in focus and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic.