Saxo Market Call

Market pushing on resistance ahead of US CPI

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LoiCFS   -

Today, we look at a the US equity market attempting a recovery into key resistance ahead of the macro data release of the week today in the form of the US January CPI. Elsewhere, bond yields also look pivotal after a very strong 10-year US treasury auction that saw strong foreign demand just after long US yields rose to new cycle highs this week. Plenty to focus on in equity markets after Disney and Uber boosted sentiment after the close and earnings season rolls on. In FX, focus on SEK and PLN on respective central bank developments and the rise in yields in EU countries saw strong demand at sovereign auctions. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Market holding its breath within pivot zone

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3oAYu9z   -

Today, we look at a market that seems to be holding its collective breath in a pivotal zone for chart technical as earnings continue to roll in and as yields have surged to new highs for the cycle in many countries, not least in Japan, where the Bank of Japan's yield cap at 0.25% may soon find itself challenged. A look at crude oil and softs, equity market focus, whether the 70's experience is relevant for today's equity market and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

EU sovereign debt crisis redux risk?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3uwk9nl   

Today, we break down another shaky session for equities as yields continue to surge higher ahead of a series of important US treasury auctions today through Thursday and ahead of Thursday's US January CPI print. We also focus on EU peripheral spreads blowing wider as the market wonders who will replace the ECB's bid if the central bank stops expanding its balance sheet. A look at drivers for the crude oil and metals markets, earnings overview for today and more also on today's pod, which features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Markets are still walking on broken glass

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3J6iZ5Z   - 

Equities were pulled out of potentially a selloff into the weekend on Friday by a 14% gain in Amazon shares and this morning equities are trading slightly higher. However, risks are still everywhere with tightening financial conditions, Ukraine-Russia tensions, high energy prices, high inflation and an elevated VIX curve suggesting the market expects above average volatility over the coming months. We also talk about the oil markets which are digesting potential oil shock from Ukraine-Russia conflict, tight inventories in the US which have eased a bit, and talks between the US and Iran. We also cover our weekly COT report which highlights changes in speculative futures positions across a wide range of commodity markets. Finally, we go through the earnings and macro calendar, with especially earnings this week being interesting with many large cyclical stocks reporting. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

ECB capitulates on inflation. Amazon underwhelms.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3AWMxA4   - 

Today we discuss the whipsaw action in equity markets as the US first closed weakly after Facebook parent Meta Platforms suffered the worst single day market cap loss for a US company in history, only to see the market enthusing, rather oddly, over Amazon and Snap results after hours. We also break down the Bank of England and ECB meetings, where Lagarde opened the floodgates by admitting that the ECB would review its policy on inflation at coming meetings. Also, the market looks ready to ignore a very ugly US January nonfarm payrolls change print today, choosing instead to focus on earnings. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Big day for BoE and ECB. Equity market too jumpy.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3AWONap  -

The US S&P 500 closed the session yesterday right on a key retracement level before crumbling after hours on a weak guidance from Facebook parent Meta Platforms and Spotify, adding the recent pattern of extreme sensitivity to surprises in earnings report. On that note, we're holding our breath for the Amazon earnings call today. We also discuss the BoE and ECB meetings today, which almost have to surprise after the surge in expectations for more hawkish guidance, particularly for the ECB. Also - crude oil is looking a bit tired technically even as the supply situation remains tight. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

We are in ”The Pivot Zone”

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3GmK3MD   -

The equity market recovery continued apace yesterday and overnight, buoyed by Alphabet's 20 to 1 stock split and a jump in its share price after the parent company of Google reported strong results for its ads business. Today we breakdown the many equities to focus on as the earnings blitz continues, the key technical levels for the equity market as this recovery has taken the price action close to pivotal resistance levels. We also discuss crude oil ahead of another OPEC+ meeting and the latest US inventory data, a very tight coffee market, understanding total return in the commodity market and in currencies, the degree to which Aussie has correlated with risk sentiment rather than listening to the RBA. This and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

An intense squeeze into month-end. What now?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3rhAme1   -

Today, we look at the market squeezing higher into month-end yesterday, with the formerly most beaten down sectors performing the best, with a single day gain of nearly 10% for our "Bubble Stocks" equity theme basket. We remain on a cautious footing. Elsewhere, a look at a hot German CPI number helping drive significant moves in EU sovereign yields ahead of an important ECB meeting on Thursday, US yield curve flattening, the market curiously brushing off a very dovish RBA, stocks to watch today as earnings season barrels along and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic