Saxo Market Call

Earnings season peaks this week. Where is Fed put?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Ge1JtQ   -

Today, we look at market sentiment attempting a recovery into the close last week as high correlation across markets remains a concern. This week, China is off-line, but we have peak earnings season for major companies reporting. We also have a bevy of central banks meeting this week, beginning with Australia's RBA tonight, where Governor Lowe and company are set for a tardy end to the RBA's balance sheet expansion. A look at crude oil, biofuels driving soybean prices higher and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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USD follows Fed expectations higher. Apple tries to boost heavy equity market

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3II0y7t   -

Today we look at a still nervy US equity market, as speculative giant Tesla stumbled badly and is now poised at key support and the market posted a new cash session low close even if the prior intraday low was not tested. Another blowout earnings report from Apple after the close tried to ride to the rescue, meanwhile. Elsewhere, metals are sucking wind and US natural gas shenanigans caught commodity traders' attention, while the strong US dollar dominated the FX market as Fed expectations remain pinned near the cycle highs after this week's FOMC meeting. This and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Another hawkish broadside from the Fed

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3r4rLv1   -

Today we pick apart yesterday's FOMC meeting, in which the statement was boring and inline with existing expectations, but the Fed Chair Powell press conference provided a couple of comments that unsettled the market on the potential for the Fed to hike far more than was previously expected. US yields rose across the yield curve, the USD spiked higher and risk sentiment rolled over badly after the powerful short squeeze that had set in ahead of the FOMC meeting. Commodities generally maintained their recent strength as US oil inventories were bullish. Focus in equities, besides on the Fed, was also on incoming reports from market giant Tesla yesterday and Apple today among other marquee names. This and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Will the Powell Fed take its foot off the gas pedal today?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/35prb2J   -

Today, we look at expectations for the Fed ahead of today's FOMC meeting and whether hopes for a somewhat less hawkish forward guidance are misplaced. We also continue to note the extreme divergences within the equity market, ask whether the mild widening in corporate credit spreads is an encouraging sign or merely a lagging indicator, note new aggravated rises in grain prices, in part on Ukraine concerns, and cover key equity earnings stories from yesterday and for the day ahead, as Tesla is set to report later today. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. 

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Volatility kicks into gear during historic Nasdaq 100 session

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3KJWbug   -

Yesterday was a historic trading session in US technology stocks with Nasdaq 100 futures down 5% before rebounding 5.8% ending the entire session higher. Volatility measured by the VIX exploded higher reaching as much as almost 39 suggesting increased nervousness. We are still not near full capitulation so traders should stay on their toes. In today's podcast we also cover commodities which have had a more rough period due to the risk-off across markets, but Ole zooms in on two markets, gold and cotton, which are doing relatively well given the circumstances. Finally, we highlight stocks to watch including Ericsson that has delivered impressive Q4 figures and then we talk about earnings releases expected today with the main focus on Microsoft reporting Q4 earnings tonight after the market close. It is also today that the Saxo Strats release their Quarterly Outlook so watch out for the publication which covers the energy crisis and how traders and investors navigate it. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

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It is not capitulation yet as markets remain nervous

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3tUoSiq   -

The VIX Index and the VIX forward curve is not displaying full capitulation yet in US equities so we cannot reject the possibility that equities could slide further, but in early European trading US equities are indeed attempting another rebound. The USDJPY has been sliding in recent weeks with risk-off in equities so if equities can stage a rebound watch out for this FX pair. The Ukraine-Russia tensions are also still lurking beneath the surface and could negatively impact European energy markets if if we see further escalation. On commodities we also talk about gold's resilience despite rising real yields and we also show how almost all of the important commodities remain in backwardation highlighting tight spot supplies. Finally, we go through which stocks to watch today and the most important earnings this week which will be the ultimate test. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

US technology stocks enter correction territory

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3KpkMoh   -

Yesterday was a violent session with Nasdaq 100 futures up more than 2% before plunging below 15,000 into the close taking US technology stocks into correction territory. Several of the pandemic darlings have been hit hard recently with yesterday two most notable names being Peloton and Netflix. We also talk about the disappointing TIPS auction in the US and how negative real yields are still supportive of high yield credit. Althea also talks about the ECB Minutes and Bunds turning below 0% again. Despite equities being under pressure commodities are having a strong week with metals such as silver and platinum leading the gains. Finally, we talk about the energy crisis in Europe where traders are relieved over more LNG supplies to Northern European but turning wary over the situation between Ukraine and Russia. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

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Inflationary pressures continue to add havoc to equities

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3tGLnae   -

Today we talk about Nasdaq 100 futures is touching its 200-day moving average in a critical moment for US technology stocks while the rest of the equity market is feeling the heat from inflationary pressures. Hang Seng futures are up 3.5% on the second rate cut by PBOC this year as Chinese policymakers are trying to smooth the ripples from the slowdown in the real estate sector. Gold is breaking up higher despite higher USD real yields and industrials metals are rallying on extremely tight supply and PBOC's rate cut. We also discuss December's PPI report from Germany showing a blistering change of 24% y/y driven by spikes in heating oil, electricity price, energy and mining. We round off the podcast with a discussion of stocks to watch today, earnings releases expected today with focus on Netflix, and the today's macro calendar. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic