Saxo Market Call

Nasdaq 100 is hitting inflection point as US interest rates spike

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ryJA4q   -

Nasdaq 100 futures are continuing their slide today as the US 10-year yield is flirting with the 1.9% level. If the Nasdaq 100 breaks below the 200-day moving average sitting at 14,986 then we could see an extended selloff, so this is a key inflection point to watch today. Althea is talking about US monetary policy, today's US 20-year Treasury auction, and the Bund yield break higher above 0%. Ole is talking about gold and oil prices which are where the energy is in commodity markets, and Peter is commenting on Microsoft's acquisition of Activision Blizzard and earnings from ASML. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

The cooker pressure is on amid higher oil prices and US interest rates

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/328l5lW   -

Higher Brent crude above $87/brl and the US 10-year yield firmly pushing above the 1.8% level is taking the energy level up a notch with Nasdaq 100 futures down 2% Market participants are clearly changing their guidance on inflation and a continuing to rotate out of high duration assets and into shorter term duration assets and inflation hedges such as energy assets. In today's podcast Althea go through the different tightening cycle this time compared to the previous one and Ole talks about oil markets, and gold's reaction to higher interest rates. Peter talks about the Q4 earnings season which really heats up next week but with three important earnings this week from ASML (tomorrow), Netflix (Thursday), and Schlumberger (Friday) Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

The tug of war between interest rates and growth

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ftJ8ij   -

Today's session is expected to be quiet with a holiday closing cash markets in the US. This week will likely become a tug of war between earnings releases and higher interest rates as equities try to digest the fast changing landscape for equities. Real yields have moved sharply higher recently suggesting the market is believing that the Fed can cool down demand and inflationary pressures by raising interest rates. For gold bulls it should be encouraging to watch how gold prices are holding up despite rising US real yields. In commodities things are not cooling down with oil prices surging higher with Brent crude at the cusp of breaking above the previous high from October last year. We also discuss copper which looked strong last week but gave up some of the gains again due to weakening macro data from China. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Market cross-currents are intensifying.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ri64Xh   -

Today, we look at a weak session in the equity market yesterday, but one that continues to show violent cross-currents as performance levels for various themes continue to diverge significantly and where there may be a considerable contrast in where institutional investors are focusing their buying versus a possibly more straightforward buy-the-dip mentality from retail traders. We also look at the US treasury auctions this week as the yield curve remains stubbornly flattish, note the ongoing JPY resurgence, the USD failing to serve as a safe haven yesterday and what we are looking for on the increasingly busy earnings calendar. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities,  Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Big dollar breaks down after latest cycle high in US CPI

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3FnDlFA   -

Today, we look at the market shrugging off the latest multi-decade high in US CPI as US treasury yields actually dipped on the day and the US dollar broke down broadly as the drumbeat of hawkish Fed appearances and data have failed to sustain new momentum in policy tightening expectations or long US treasury yields. Elsewhere, we look at a new pop in metal prices, particularly copper, discuss key equity stories, including chip giant TSMC and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Mean reversion, check. Now what?

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3zONkTb   -

Today, we discussed yesterday's session completing at least a near term mean reversion in market internals after remarkable performance divergence between bubble stocks and the wider market. Elsewhere, we look at US yields peeling away from new highs after Fed Chair Powell's nomination hearing and as we await a possible 7-handle on the US headline December CPI later today for the first time since 1982, discuss credit spreads in high yield corporates and whether there are any signs of distress yet, new post-omicron highs in crude oil, inflation pressures from food and wages and more. Today's pod features   Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Turnaround Monday as sentiment makes a stand

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3fbHEsX   - 

Today, we look at the extension of the US equity market sell-off suddenly finding support intraday yesterday and managing to close around unchanged, with Bitcoin surviving a simultaneous challenge of the key 40,000 area. US long treasury yields also topped out yesterday with auctions in coming days critical for measuring demand after the recent spike in yields. A look at FX developments, key equity stories and earnings and macro event risks on on tap and more in today's pod, which features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Entire US yield curve lifting and geopolitical nerves weighing

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3JW7bEM   -

Today, we look at December US jobs report indicating that the US is more or less at full employment as payrolls growth is anemic, but the unemployment rate continues to drop aggressively and average hourly earnings to rise steeply. The Fed will continue to feel that it is behind the curve and may have to step up more dramatically than the market is currently pricing, with yields now rising all along the yield curve. Elsewhere, we look at crude oil, commodity index rebalancing, softs, struggling vaccine maker Moderna as omicron may point toward a new phase of the pandemic, geopolitical concerns on Ukraine weighing heavily this week, upcoming earnings calendar and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic