Saxo Market Call

Entire US yield curve lifting and geopolitical nerves weighing

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3JW7bEM   -

Today, we look at December US jobs report indicating that the US is more or less at full employment as payrolls growth is anemic, but the unemployment rate continues to drop aggressively and average hourly earnings to rise steeply. The Fed will continue to feel that it is behind the curve and may have to step up more dramatically than the market is currently pricing, with yields now rising all along the yield curve. Elsewhere, we look at crude oil, commodity index rebalancing, softs, struggling vaccine maker Moderna as omicron may point toward a new phase of the pandemic, geopolitical concerns on Ukraine weighing heavily this week, upcoming earnings calendar and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

December US jobs report today, earnings season next week

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/31xIlJN  -

Today we look at the energy from the reaction to the hawkish FOMC minutes fading as the market looks forward to next steps for US treasury yields after the key 10-year benchmark has reached the post pandemic-outbreak high around 1.75%. Also today, a preview of earnings season kicking off next week, real yields, EU sovereign yields as the German bunds trade near zero percent, and preview the important US December jobs (and average hourly earnings!) report up later today. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Hawkish Fed has the market in its talons

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3eT0rsQ   -

Today we look at how the market absorbed yet another hawkish surprise from the Fed, as the FOMC minutes surprised with a robust discussion of whether an actual reduction of the Fed balance sheet is a policy option worth pursuing in addition to rate hikes. In equities, the focus of the discussion is on the heavy impact on interest-rate sensitive names and whether some of the selling there is getting overdone for the names with the strongest fundamental growth ahead of earning season. A look at gold, other metals and the strength in the USD and not least, the JPY after the FOMC minutes and more also in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

In the great EV battle, a graveyard of casualties awaits

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3qNOmdV   -

Today, we look at the extreme new divergences that have already developed in the US equity market over just the first two trading session of 2022, and focus attention on Ford's new 20-year share price high on enthusiasm for the prospects of its EV version of the F-150 truck as we ponder the overvaluation of the entire EV space relative and where the inevitable casualties will be found in the years ahead. In commodities, the focus is all on energy at the moment while the FX focus is dominated by the weak JPY and developments in safe haven yields. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

US yields surge on first trading day of 2022

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3ETxdon   

Today, we look at yesterday's surge in US long-term treasury yields and wonder whether this is narrative based and linked to worries clearing on the longer term impact of the omicron virus variant or whether it is a mechanical development due to huge shifts in funds related to the calendar roll into the New Year. Elsewhere, we look at new  highs in USDJPY on the US yield spike, key equity stories, upcoming earnings, gold and copper, soybeans, and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Looking for a very different year ahead in 2022

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3sSjDz2   -

Today, we look ahead to a year that is very unlikely to shape up like 2021 as pressing question on inflation and real growth await this market. We delve into interesting equities for the week ahead, especially Tesla and a few Chinese names, look at the road ahead for oil prices and natural  gas and breakdown the macro calendar for the week ahead, with Italian politics a key focus in January and the reaction to US data this week setting the tone as long US treasury yields remain stubbornly rangebound. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Thanks for a fantastic 2021! (And some cautious notes on markets in 2022)

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3eATigF   -

Today, a heartfelt thanks to our growing tribe of listeners, who have well over doubled in number this year. In today's final podcast of 2021, we look at the remarkable performance of the US equity market over the last year and the last three years, noting that the this has been the strongest three-year performance in over twenty years and what that says about the likely forward return profile. Also, a look at crude oil, gold, the year in soft commodities, FX perspectives, the macro calendar for the first week of 2022 and more. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Crude oil and US dollar setup ahead of the New Year

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3HigFYx   -

Today we look at the light positioning in crude oilmarkets ahead of the New Year, offering plenty of space for big moves next year, particularly if demand picks up. Also, a look at one measure of US dollar positioning that suggests bulls may have a hard time finding more fuel for an extension higher. We also cover the latest on the natural gas situation in Europe, positioning in other commodity markets, other FX perspectives and more. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic