Saxo Market Call

Equities aboard Santa’s sleigh, but yield curve predicting storm ahead?

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3HiNuoe   -

Today we put the year of 2021 in equities in perspective and question whether 2022 will bring a very different return profile. As well, we try to pick apart what the US yield curve is telling us about inflation or other areas of concern entirely, specifically that the Fed can only go so far before triggering the next panic that then requires that they ease. Specific equity stories, USDJPY seasonality, energy developments and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX. 

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

The setup for 2022

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3puEoil   -

Today features special guest, Saxo Chief Economist and CIO Steen Jakobsen as we look at the market setup in the dying days of 2021 and the outlook for 2022, especially for the US market and fiscal dominance versus Fed irrelevance. We also ponder the risks for Europe, where the energy situation adds an extra layer of concern to a raft of other issues, even if recent sessions have brought a remarkable reversal in the EU power and natural gas prices. John J. Hardy hosts.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Will the positive market spirit extend into the holiday?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3pjqIXq   -

Equities are slightly off following yesterday's strong move higher driven by good news on the Omicron variant, Biden's confident remarks on making a deal with US Senator Joe Manchin, and then topped up overnight in China with Hang Seng equities pushing higher on strong remarks on stimulus towards the real estate sector from a local government; the comments were later pulled back. The positive sentiment is feeding into higher US interest rates, a stronger USD against most currencies and especially the JPY, with gold moving lower. We also talk about today's macro releases and two acquisition news impacting Maersk, LF Logistics, Aker BP and Lundin Energy. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on "everything".

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Moderna news injects fresh optimism

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Egc3jK   -

Markets are rebounding on yesterday's positive Moderna news that its vaccine provides good protection against the Omicron variant and the US Senator Joe Manchin said he might vote for Biden's Build Back Better deal in a revised version. However, with liquidity dropping towards the holiday period we put little weight on these moves. India had one of its most successful IPO today ending a string of recently bad ones providing some fresh positive sentiment to this equity market. The oil market is also responding well to the Moderna news rebounding together with equities and the long-term demand outlook looks solid. We also talk coffee prices, and earnings from Nike and Micron. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole Hansen on commodities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Year-end chill descend on markets

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3pcqTU9   -

It feels almost like December 2018 with the persistent weakness in the market, but this time market participants are not screaming policy mistake by the FOMC. Instead markets are reacting to the Covid-19 Omicron variant which is increasingly adding new restrictions to countries lowering economic activity in the services sector and adding to pressures on already fragile global supply chains. In today's podcast we talk about weakness in equities, China's housing market crisis and the PBOC's 5 bps rate cut, Europe's ongoing energy crisis as cold weather is expected, the Turkish Lira in free fall, and finally a bit of single stocks stories impacting green transformation stocks. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole Hansen on commodities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

FOMC kneejerk reversal and ominous technical setup

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3e2SAIG   -

Today we look at the whiplash-inducing reversal of the post-FOMC equity market rally as safe haven seeking was in evidence everywhere, with the entire US yield curve dropping and gold and the Japanese yen rising. A special focus on some technical concerns for the Nasdaq 100 index after the sell-off. Elsewhere, we look at the smart recovery in gold, the latest on the natural gas situation in Europe, a batch of equity stories, especially stocks linked to the European car industry, and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Who‘s afraid of the big, bad Fed?

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3E1vT2j   -

Today we pick apart the market reaction to the FOMC meeting, which approximately met market expectations, at least according to the what the market is expecting the Fed to deliver in the way of an accelerated asset purchase taper and three rate hikes next year. The equity market took the event risk as an excuse to buy-the-fact as there was no net new hawkish surprise and long yields remained tame. We also look at the reactions in commodities and FX to the FOMC meeting, preview FedEx earnings and look at a very busy central bank meeting calendar for the day ahead and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

What does Fed deliver and what is in the price?

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/33xuBiY   -

Today we look at the reaction to yesterday's release of the very hot US November producer price inflation data and the modest reaction in Fed rate expectations as we ponder what tonight's FOMC meeting will deliver and how the market will react, given what is already priced in. Also, a look at the latest spike in EU natural gas prices and key equity stories for the days ahead, including earnings from software giant Adobe. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic