Saxo Market Call

The FOMC expectations conundrum

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3pXCvcO   -

Today we preview tomorrow's FOMC meeting and scratch our heads a bit at what the market is telling us about what it thinks is coming from the Fed, both in terms of the guidance that will be provided tomorrow, but also how it is reading the longer term Fed policy trajectory. A look at key equity stories and much more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Helmets on, it‘s FOMC week

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3m0eQHv   -

Today we look an interesting close to last week, as the market pulled back Fed rate hike expectations slightly lower despite the November CPI report showing the hottest CPI data in decades. The US market saw a record high close on Friday, but we look at the interesting lack of breadth on a number of time frames. We also discuss key equity stories, including signs of oilfield investment picking up, look at metals and commodity positioning and briefly preview the busy week ahead on the central bank meeting front, with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday taking center stage. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Have the markets got Fed expectations right?

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3oFFqHI   -

Today features special guest, Saxo Chief Economist and CIO Steen Jakobsen, who takes us through his perspective on what the Fed may do from here based on two scenarios for inflation, one "benign" and one less so, as we await today's US November CPI data point ahead of a very pivotal FOMC meeting next week. We also look at the latest on the natural gas situation in Europe and wheat ahead of a very expensive spring for planters looking at soaring fertilizer prices. Also, we preview the busy economic calendar for the week ahead, which includes an ECB meeting and several other Central Bank meetings of note. Today's pod also features Ole Hansen on commodities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

US yields repositioning for eventual lift-off?

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3DEj2CP   -

Today we look at the US treasury yields in the wake of yesterday's action as omicron variant concerns fade further, especially whether the longer end of the yield curve is set to set considerably higher as the Fed moves into a hiking regime next year, as has been the case in cycles past. Thoughts on credit, key equity stories, whether EURUSD can make a turn here, the remarkable dispersion in equity market and energy market forecasts for next year, Europe's ongoing energy crunch and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Market fear evaporates for now

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3rPUq7U   -

Today we look at the incredibly strong rebound in the major equity indices, in part on the lifting of omicron concerns, but practically speaking probably also on the lifting of downside hedges or gamma risk. A rundown of key FX developments, including the very strong Chinese renminbi, a look at where crude oil will focus next as only a portion of the huge recent slide has been erased, still positive roll curve for commodities, US political developments of note and much more. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Market trying to get Santa rally back on the rails

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3rGd4iq   -

Today we look at the strong rebound in risk sentiment as omicron covid uncertainty may be fading and as China appears to be firming up a commitment to supporting the economy. A look at junk debt also enjoying a rebound, at key equity stories for today, whether the USD may roll over soon after its recent bout of strength, the crude oil and coffee markets and much more. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Hot economic data and low bond yields

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3Exq1ig   

Link to Outrageous Predictions 2022 webinar: https://bit.ly/3IjF2Xr  (scroll down to find replay)

Today we look at the confusing combination of US long yields plunging to new cycle lows even as the US registers strong economic data as it did on Friday. Some of the strength in treasuries was down to a fresh bout of weak risk sentiment, which was particularly interesting on Friday as normally interest rate sensitive names failed to find support from the yield drop. Elsewhere, we look at the shifts in speculative positioning in commodities, the latest developments in energy, stocks to watch this week, AUDUSD at a major pivot ahead of the RBA meeting tonight and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic.

Destruction unfolds beneath the surface in equities

Slide deck for today's episode: https://bit.ly/3Eo0TdC   -

Equities were looking to skid further yesterday but mustered a comeback erasing the prior day's decline, but underneath the rebound overall in equities we observe outright destruction across many key bubble stock names. Evidence of this destruction was well on display in DocuSign plunging 30% in extended trading on a minor miss on revenue for Q4. We also discuss the market's pricing on interest rate hikes next year before cuts showing that the market has difficulties believing in higher interest rates over a longer period. On commodities we highlight the recent rebound in oil despite OPEC+ intentions to lift production and the recent slump in natural gas prices in the US on mild weather. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic