Saxo Market Call

US market closing in on capitulation levels

Saxo's 2022 Outrageous Predictions: Here comes a revolution!

Slide deck for today's episode: https://bit.ly/3rsrp1W   -

Today we discuss a very ugly day for US equities yesterday, with the mega-caps finally joining in with a weak session as focus remains on the Fed's hawkish pivot and the ongoing virus unease. We also dive into contagion risk for credit if leverage loan prices continue to come under pressure, whether OPEC+ can dig the oil market out of its current rut, key equities to focus on for the day ahead after concerning news from Apple on the demand side and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Hawkish broadside from Powell roils markets further

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2ZF3n8o   -

The market administered yet another round of whiplash as very hawkish comments from Powell cement the Fed's direction shift that was just getting focus before derailed late last week by the omicron covid variant derailment, leaving market participants chopped to bits. We try to sort through the implications, noting weakening credit conditions as a key focus, as well as  value versus growth themes, individual equity stories, and the next important macro data points, which will gain increasing attention if the omicron impact eventually fades.Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Absurd headline risk for now as risk conditions are deteriorating

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3IhpraT   -

The market action yesterday and overnight underlined the extreme headline risk in this market, as well as the poor liquidity conditions. Yesterday, the market attempted a heroic recovery on hopes for the Fed put backstopping the market, before we get covid vaccine maker Moderna's CEO out roiling the waters with loud concerns on the new omicron variant's potential to evade the current vaccines. Elsewhere, we look at signals from the US Treasury and EU sovereign bond markets, note that financial conditions are in a very different place relative to any other outbreak of volatility this year, especially in terms of widening credit spreads, look at key equity stories and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Knee-jerk conclusions are a dangerous thing

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3FQDYrG   -

Today we look at markets trying to stabilize after Friday's traumatic reaction, amidst poor liquidity, to the news of the new omicron covid variant outbreak. Most of all, we are reluctant to draw any conclusions or endorse the market's attempt to do so as it will take some time to determine the scale of the danger from the new variant, not least from strict travel bans that are already taking shape. We also preview the week ahead in earnings and macro event risks in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

This couldn‘t have come at a worse time

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3lcLo0y   -

Today we look at the news of the new Covid variant hitting global markets like a ton of bricks at almost the worst imaginable time, as liquidity is poor over the ongoing US Thanksgiving holiday, with most US market participants away from their desks on holiday and the most liquid global market in the US only open for half a session today. We underline that we have no idea what will happen in the ongoing development of this virus news, but that traders should tread with extreme care, given that near term volatility risks are extreme on the unfortunate timing, particularly giving the sudden shift in focus that this news brings relative to recent themes and current market positioning. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Special Edition: Brent Donnelly of Spectramarkets

This special episode features a conversation on all things trading with Brent Donnelly, a veteran trader and writer, now with Spectramarkets.com. Brent has more than 25 years of experience trading currencies and other assets with major international investment banks and hedge funds. Brent is a gifted writer who pens daily market thoughts on FX and macro with spectramarkets.com, peppered with insightful comments on market movements and ideas for what may happen next. He has also authored two books, The Art of Currency Trading and Alpha Trader, which offer traders of all levels a roadmap for what successful trading looks like, never shying from describing the hard work that is necessary on all levels, from trader mindset, behavior and money management, to the fundamental and technical expertise.

• Link to Brent's daily macro letter at spectramarkets.com.
• Find Brent's two books at your favorite bookseller: The Art of Currency Trading (2019) and Alpha Trader: the Mindset, Methodology and Mathematics of Professional Trading (2021)

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Temporary relief as dark clouds are gathering

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3xnws4L   -

Yesterday's reversal in the US 10-year yield due to less bad than feared PCE core inflation for October caused a relief rally in equities and especially technology and bubble stocks. However, as we note today a big change has happened inside the Fed with a less focus going forward on employment and more on inflation to protect US households. The market is adjusting its expectations for rate hikes next year to almost three suggesting 2022 will be a very different year from the previous two years. On commodities we discuss the upcoming OPEC+ reaction to the recent Biden administration release of strategic oil reserves to ease the pain from higher oil prices. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, and Peter Garnry hosting and on equities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

The unbearable sensitivity to rising yields

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/32om7Kl   -

Today we try to quantify and illustrate the equity markets most sensitive to rises in long yields, i.e., duration sensitivity, noting particularly chunky declines in the most duration sensitive markets yesterday. As well, a look at the "buy the fact" reaction to the US release of strategic oil reserves, key FX stories, including the RBNZ proving less hawkish than the market hoped and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic