Saxo Market Call

This market climbing a wall of major worries

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3pzKHBG   -

Today we look at the remarkably complacent equity market as the VIX drops back toward cycle lows and the broader US market touches all time highs even as the market prices the Fed to move its rate hike lift-off significantly earlier after comments on Friday from Fed Chair Powell that suggested the Fed is seeing the need for readying policy for a "range of outcomes". We preview this busiest of earnings season weeks, the mounting pressure on inflation from commodities, why the US dollar didn't get more support from Powell's comments and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Special Edition: Interview with Ark Innovation‘s Cathie Wood, Part 2

This is the second half of an interview the Saxo Strategy Team hosted with Cathie Wood of the Ark Innovation ETF on October 12, 2021. For a link to the full video interview, see below. You can find the first half of this interview in the podcast feed, uploaded on October 21. Enjoy!

Full interview in video format: https://bit.ly/3naxn3U (find under Previous Webinars)

More about the Ark Innovation ETF: https://ark-funds.com/funds/arkk/ 

Special Edition: Interview with Ark Innovation‘s Cathie Wood, Part 1

This is the first half of an interview the Saxo Strategy Team hosted with Cathie Wood of the Ark Innovation ETF on October 12, 2021. For a link to the full video interview, see below. We will bring you the second half of the audio of this interview tomorrow on October 22. Enjoy!

Full interview in video format: https://bit.ly/3naxn3U (find under Previous Webinars)

More about the Ark Innovation ETF: https://ark-funds.com/funds/arkk/ 

Stagflation is already here

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3E1OVWJ   -

Today features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen who takes us through the evidence that stagflation has arrived with sustained higher prices over the horizon while real growth is cratering. We also delve into the copper market, the outlook for a number of currencies, a laundry list of currencies reporting supply chain issues, why yields are headed higher and why the stock market has the backdrop wrong here. Hosting today's pod is John J. Hardy.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Central banks expectations find new gear, but Fed is behind the curve

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3jcsG8A   -

Today features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen and a look across markets, where central bank policy tightening expectations have shifted  into a whole new gear this week, led by the RBNZ and the Bank of England, with the Fed behind the curve on its insistence on first tapering. Also, we look at a rare significant USD move overnight as the Chinese renminbi broke higher versus the US dollar and took other USD pairs with it. A special focus today on AUDUSD and the market thumbing its nose at RBA guidance. We also talk inflation, yield, second round wage effects, the next Fed Chair if it isn't Powell and more. Today's pod hosted by John J. Hardy.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Energy is building towards...what?

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3AT8fDk   -

Today we run through a choppy start to the week as the market digests the latest sharp advance in energy prices and bond yields and casts a nervous eye on the feeble Chinese growth data for Q3. We also dive into the sharp flattening of the US yield curve, the hot CPI reading out of New Zealand overnight, look at what drives GBPUSD even more than the recent drastic repricing of the Bank of England's rate hike expectations in recent months, talk extreme JPY weakness and whether it is sustainable, preview the busy earnings calendar for the week ahead and a less busy, but still interesting macro calendar as well.  Today's pod hosted by John J. Hardy.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Market goes vertical

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3vgcw2P   -

Today we look at an equity market that is in melt-up mode after key resistance fell away in major US equity indices and as tamed long US yields and a weak US dollar are adding fuel to the fire. We fail to see yields heading much lower still without indicating something rather ominous. Elsewhere, a breakdown of the movers and shakers in FX, Bunds over-correcting on growth downgrades for Germany (because of supply constraints, not weak demand), credit, and today's key data points - especially the inflation expectations part of the University of Michigan sentiment survey, which reveals interesting possible source of a seemingly strong economy with weak sentiment.  Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

A possible key reversal day for markets

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3FEYmgp   -

Today we look at what could prove a key reversal day across  markets as the US CPI release and FOMC minutes failed to trigger significant unease and US long treasury yields actually headed lower after another strong treasury auction yesterday, this time of 30-year T-bonds. With US long yields reversing lower, risk sentiment got a significant boost and the USD was pushed sharply back lower, while the metals market has seized all of the attention in the commodities space. Also on the call, we look at JP Morgan earnings, what's on tap next as earnings season gets into full swing and whether the USD has  posted a major top. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic