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The Saxo strategy team delivers insights and opinions about financial markets in a series of weekly podcasts covering all asset classes. Monday is our conversation about macroeconomy, currencies, and central banks. Tuesday is all about fixed-income ranging from governments bonds to credit. Wednesday is a jump into global equities covering earnings, themes, and single stocks. Thursday is our journey into commodities covering everything from natural gas to soybeans.
Episodes
11 hours ago
11 hours ago
Oil markets await the upcoming OPEC decision with the expectation to another production cut to bolster favourable conditions for oil markets. We also discuss the diverging performance across many commodities in November including coffee up 8% and US natural gas down 25% as the peak rate narrative sets in, with Ole S Hansen and Peter Garnry.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the SaxoStrats here.
2 days ago
2 days ago
Today we reflect on the meteoric rise in the index weights of mega caps as a function of the generative AI hype this year pushing S&P 500 index concentration to the highest recorded since 1991. The cyber security is a super interesting industry for many reasons that we go through in addition to our reflections on CrowdStrike earnings. Finally, we discuss the wisdom of the now late Charlie Munger and the influence he had on Warren Buffett and some of his key opinions on investing and why he did not like the accounting metric EBITDA , with Peter Garnry.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
3 days ago
3 days ago
Today we talk about government bond markets and whether market expectations are getting a bit ahead of themselves. Especially, the rally in UK Gilts market could be unsustainable given the underlying inflation and likely more fiscal stimulus next year. We also discuss yesterday's conflicting messages around ECB policy and the upcoming Eurozone CPIP report on Thursday. Finally, we discuss the US Treasury market that has rallied the most since August 2011 with the 10-year yield declining 60 bps, but the bigger question is whether the rally is sustainable, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
4 days ago
4 days ago
After last week's quiet backdrop due to the US Thanksgiving holiday this week will drum up more energy with important inflation reports from the US, Eurozone, and Australia which will be important for the direction of the USD that have found itself increasingly in negative momentum. China has had so many false starts this year and this week we will get another PMI report that will show whether the recent stimulus actions by the Chinese government is moving economic activity. Finally, we talk about the USDJPY which seems to have reached a top and this narrative could be bolstered on a weaker than expected USD inflation report, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Thursday Nov 23, 2023
Thursday Nov 23, 2023
Today we talk about the possibility of another Santa rally in gold and silver. The previous six years have had a strong December in those two precious metals - is the setup right again this year? The oil market is nervous with a tricky supply and demand situation with traders awaiting OPEC's next move. For all the weakness in China, Copper is still holding up pretty well and the recent moves from the Chinese government to support real estate developers and the economy could turn things around for copper. In addition, Chinese inventory of copper is at a rock-bottom low, with Ole S Hansen and Peter Garnry.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the SaxoStrats here.
Wednesday Nov 22, 2023
Wednesday Nov 22, 2023
We discuss four topics today. Nvidia's earnings were incredible strong blasting estimates but US export controls are upsetting and lowering the visibility of its Chinese business. The US economy is still expanding but slowing down while earnings estimates are coming down in Europe and S&P 500 (ex. technology sector) which are at odds with a rallying equity market. Across equity themes the green transformation baskets are still under pressure while nuclear power and commodities are doing well. Finally, we talk about batteries with both Chinese based CATL and Swedish based Northvolt expecting to list next year, with Peter Garnry.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Tuesday Nov 21, 2023
Tuesday Nov 21, 2023
Today's episode is about a concept called fiscal dominance which is when the fiscal policies begin to dominate the monetary policy. Under conditions of high debt levels and rising interest rates it can create a negative feedback loop in inflation and interest rates potentially leading to sustained negative real rates and fiscal repression. We also talk about yesterday's 20-year Treasury auction and how the market response might indicate that the market is pricing in a slightly more hawkish Fed, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Monday Nov 20, 2023
Monday Nov 20, 2023
The USD continues to weaken with the market betting on a Fed pivot as inflation cooled more than expected last week and more indicators are suggesting the US economy is slowing down. We also cover FOMC Minutes, initial jobless claims, and Black Friday. In Europe, this week is going to be a key test of the turnaround narrative with fresh PMI figures and IFO survey, while we also keeping an eye on UK budget and Riksbank. Finally, in Asia FX traders should have a focus on RBA Minutes and the stabilisation/strengthening of the Chinese Yuan, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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