Saxo Market Call

Massive week ahead. Pondering Adani contagion in EM.

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3R9lt8M   -

Today we look at the US equity market posting another strong session and bulling toward the last major local resistance area in the S&P 500, with the Nasdaq 100 closer to the key resistance and managing a close above the 200-day moving average yesterday. We express strong concerns that the market is ignoring the risk of margin pressure on company profits this year. We also look at the massive downdraft in Adani after short-selling outfit Hindenburg issued its report on the company, wondering at the scale of the contagion. Concerns for global food prices, latest thoughts on crude, the huge week ahead for earnings, central bank meetings and macro data and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

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Choose a direction, already...

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3XEe83F   -

Today we look at the US market once again righting itself, rallying hard from intraday weakness and the gap lower in Microsoft after its earnings report from the prior day, and keeping the sense of suspense on the coming market direction very much alive as the price action is churning in pivotal areas on the chart. Tesla's report after hours and outlook kept that stock in rallying form as well. US yields eased again, and the Bank of Canada hiked, but indicated that it will pause its tightening cycle for now, one of the first non-EM banks to do so and driving hopes that other central banks will soon follow suit. A look at crude oil, wheat, gold, the earnings calendar ahead and more also on today's pod, which features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

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Market holds breath as Tesla to report after sharp squeeze

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Rch59i   -

Today we look at the US market treading water and even dipping a bit after hours, spooked in part by Microsoft guidance and 3M results for the quarter and mulling the incoming Tesla earnings report today after the close after the most popular stock for speculators  has rallied over 40% off the recent lows. We note that demand for US treasuries at yesterday's 2-year auction was the strongest in over two years, take stock of the AUD surge overnight on a strong Q4 CPI report, wrap ASML results and look at the rest of today's busy earnings calendar, with a wide variety of companies reporting. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

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Uncomfortable squeeze as earnings season rush kicks off

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3JcTpzw   -

Today we discuss the US equity market melting up technically at an awkward moment, as leading indicators suggest we are barreling into a recession. In any case, a big test ahead as earnings season kicks off in earnest with today's batch of companies reporting, including beaten down mega-cap Microsoft after hours. In commodities, a check-in with crude oil, silver's ugly dip relative to still-strong gold, and one of the most shorted commodities, coffee. Stocks to watch today, the macro calendar picking up and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

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Mixed signals ahead of US earnings blast

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3wkQ0XV    -

Today we look at Friday's strong resurgence in US equities, which came after a seeming strong rejection of the rally into pivotal levels in the US S&P 500 index. This leaves market technicals in limbo ahead of the blast of earnings reports from large US companies this week and next. We also discuss confusing macro signals as financial conditions continue to ease, although treasury yields have pulled back from their recent slide. Also on the pod: the latest positioning data in commodities markets, natural gas on colder weather, wheat and coffee under pressure, JPY weaker, a look ahead at this week's busy earnings and less busy macro calendar and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

US jobless claims, hawkish ECB halt the slide in yields

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3kwAo0u   -

Today we note that rebounding yields on hawkish ECB talk and another very strong weekly jobless claims report out of the US have the JPY weakening again, but not supporting the US dollar outside of USDJPY. Elsewhere, we look at stronger than expected results from Netflix and weaker than expected results from Procter and Gamble as volumes drop due to price hikes. A look at crude oil dynamics now that the EU is attempting its embargo on Russian crude, gold maintaining remarkable strength and avoiding notable consolidation, the macro calendar for the week ahead and more. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

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Wait, was bad news actually bad news yesterday?

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ZPdT7e   -

Today, we look at the US equity market reacting poorly to bad US economic data yesterday rather than celebrating the drop in treasury yields to new cycle lows, an interesting change of behavior. We also look at the suddenly firming US dollar and an even firmer Japanese yen overnight, just a day after the Bank of Japan triggered a slide in the yen. Gold holding steady through all of the fuss, while cyclical commodities rolled over a bit as China is set to go off line next week for the Lunar New Year holiday. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

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Kuroda is not for turning, but will step down soon

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3kpPRzF   -

Today, we look at the jolt back to the downside for the JPY after wily Bank of Japan governor Kuroda failed to deliver further policy tweaks and looks set to end his time at the helm in April without offering further policy tightening. Still, the JPY may not sell-off much more beyond the knee-jerk as bond yields are on the decline, keeping spreads to "capped" Japanese yields orderly and even tighter. Elsewhere, we note easign financial conditions and plenty of USD liquidity and whether it has the potential to driver further gains for risky assets and a weaker US dollar. We also dive into the latest on crude oil and metals, and earnings reports and macro data up today in the US. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic