Saxo Market Call
Destruction unfolds beneath the surface in equities

Destruction unfolds beneath the surface in equities

December 3, 2021

Slide deck for today's episode: https://bit.ly/3Eo0TdC   -

Equities were looking to skid further yesterday but mustered a comeback erasing the prior day's decline, but underneath the rebound overall in equities we observe outright destruction across many key bubble stock names. Evidence of this destruction was well on display in DocuSign plunging 30% in extended trading on a minor miss on revenue for Q4. We also discuss the market's pricing on interest rate hikes next year before cuts showing that the market has difficulties believing in higher interest rates over a longer period. On commodities we highlight the recent rebound in oil despite OPEC+ intentions to lift production and the recent slump in natural gas prices in the US on mild weather. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

US market closing in on capitulation levels

US market closing in on capitulation levels

December 2, 2021

Saxo's 2022 Outrageous Predictions: Here comes a revolution!

Slide deck for today's episode: https://bit.ly/3rsrp1W   -

Today we discuss a very ugly day for US equities yesterday, with the mega-caps finally joining in with a weak session as focus remains on the Fed's hawkish pivot and the ongoing virus unease. We also dive into contagion risk for credit if leverage loan prices continue to come under pressure, whether OPEC+ can dig the oil market out of its current rut, key equities to focus on for the day ahead after concerning news from Apple on the demand side and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Hawkish broadside from Powell roils markets further

Hawkish broadside from Powell roils markets further

December 1, 2021

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2ZF3n8o   -

The market administered yet another round of whiplash as very hawkish comments from Powell cement the Fed's direction shift that was just getting focus before derailed late last week by the omicron covid variant derailment, leaving market participants chopped to bits. We try to sort through the implications, noting weakening credit conditions as a key focus, as well as  value versus growth themes, individual equity stories, and the next important macro data points, which will gain increasing attention if the omicron impact eventually fades.Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Absurd headline risk for now as risk conditions are deteriorating

Absurd headline risk for now as risk conditions are deteriorating

November 30, 2021

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3IhpraT   -

The market action yesterday and overnight underlined the extreme headline risk in this market, as well as the poor liquidity conditions. Yesterday, the market attempted a heroic recovery on hopes for the Fed put backstopping the market, before we get covid vaccine maker Moderna's CEO out roiling the waters with loud concerns on the new omicron variant's potential to evade the current vaccines. Elsewhere, we look at signals from the US Treasury and EU sovereign bond markets, note that financial conditions are in a very different place relative to any other outbreak of volatility this year, especially in terms of widening credit spreads, look at key equity stories and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Knee-jerk conclusions are a dangerous thing

Knee-jerk conclusions are a dangerous thing

November 29, 2021

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3FQDYrG   -

Today we look at markets trying to stabilize after Friday's traumatic reaction, amidst poor liquidity, to the news of the new omicron covid variant outbreak. Most of all, we are reluctant to draw any conclusions or endorse the market's attempt to do so as it will take some time to determine the scale of the danger from the new variant, not least from strict travel bans that are already taking shape. We also preview the week ahead in earnings and macro event risks in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

This couldn‘t have come at a worse time

This couldn‘t have come at a worse time

November 26, 2021

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3lcLo0y   -

Today we look at the news of the new Covid variant hitting global markets like a ton of bricks at almost the worst imaginable time, as liquidity is poor over the ongoing US Thanksgiving holiday, with most US market participants away from their desks on holiday and the most liquid global market in the US only open for half a session today. We underline that we have no idea what will happen in the ongoing development of this virus news, but that traders should tread with extreme care, given that near term volatility risks are extreme on the unfortunate timing, particularly giving the sudden shift in focus that this news brings relative to recent themes and current market positioning. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

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