Saxo Market Call

Focus on inflation ahead of Biden inauguration

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/39ZJdY7   -

Today, we dive into the important subject of inflation and how central bank and fiscal policy moves during the Covid pandemic, together with supply disruptions and demand recovery, are driving near term inflationary risks. Also, thoughts on one aspect of the incoming Biden administration that may not  bet receiving enough focus: oversight. Today's call with Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Markets starting off Biden inauguration week on a cautious note

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3nOtEao   - 

Today, we look at the weak close on Friday as Q4 earnings season kicked off in earnest and how the market is treating the JP Morgan results in particular and a preview of Netflix. Also a look at the overall status of the US dollar and how the market will treat the arrival of the Biden administration, with the flurry of executive actions planned, not to mention stimulus potential. In commodities, the latest on crude oil and gold. Today's call with Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Markets rolling over despite $1.9trn stimulus plan and dovish Powell

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2XKc8JI    - 

Today, we look at markets rolling over across all asset classes despite Biden's $1.9trn stimulus plan and a dovish Fed chair Powell saying interest rates will not be hiked anytime soon unless something dramatic happens to inflation. Markets are questioning whether large parts of the stimulus plan can get through US Congress and as result equities and yields are lower today. We also discuss the Trump administration's blacklist of Xiaomi and earnings today from major US banks such as JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup. We also discuss fading momentum in commodities and especially in crude oil as the reflation trades are pausing for now. Today on the call are Peter Garnry on equities and Ole Hansen hosting and on commodities.

Pondering the post-Covid potential.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3bCLPgN    - 

Today, we look at Biden's possible large stimulus plans, where the Fed can make a policy mistake once we get post-Covid vaccine and how the market is already second guessing the Fed's forecasts on the timing of the first hike, whether the market is under-estimating the potential for a stock like Delta Airlines in 2022 and beyond, oil and commodity markets, especially the interesting dips in Chinese commodity purchase in December, and much more. Today on the call are Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

US yield rise moderates as USD wilts. Grains exploding.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/39kXQVe   - 

Today, we look into the USD reversing back lower as US yields topped out and rolled over slightly, in part on Fed pushback against tapering guidance. Also a look into fixed income developments in EM, the explosion in grain prices, what is keeping oil so elevated, Zoom's interesting gambit to maintain momentum, the Plug Power hookup with Renault and more. Today's call with Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Social media companies a drag on US equities. Tesla versus NIO.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2Xw2LNV   -

Today, we look at divergent markets as Japanese equities managed to scrape to a new cycle high, while US stocks corrected sharply back lower after the prior day's surge, dragged in particular by social media companies on the de-platforming of Trump and other related issues linked to him politically. Also a look today at Tesla versus NIO, the commodities complex, the status  of the US dollar consolidation and more. Today's call with Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Markets stumble into a new week. Ferocious volatility in crypto space.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/39nc2gr    -

Today, we look at the vicious volatility in crypto currencies over the weekend and at the start of a new week, a week that has likewise started on a sour note for global equities, possibly due to fresh Covid-19 dread. A discussion today on what equity markets are best positioned for commodity reflation, whether the commodity trade is a bit overbaked in the short run, and a discussion of the US yield breakout as the prime mover across markets. Today's call with Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Notes of caution after another surge of optimism

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3s8elwv    - 

With US President Donald Trump conceding that Biden is set to take charge, and with anticipation of new large US stimulus checks in the works in the early days of his administration, markets are in a fine mood on the implications for this stimulus feeding liquidity and the global economy. Today we still urge some level of caution, especially as long bond yields continue to rise, a development that is supporting the US dollar and whacked gold back below 1,900 this morning. On today's call are Ole Hansen on commodities, Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.