Episodes
Tuesday Oct 31, 2023
Fixed-income: A barbell strategy and three central banks
Tuesday Oct 31, 2023
Tuesday Oct 31, 2023
Today we talk about the three major central bank rate decisions this week (BoJ, Fed, and BoE) and how the bond market is pricing policy rate trajectory long-term in the US and Europe. we also explain the barbell strategy as one way to approach the bond market these days, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Monday Oct 30, 2023
Macro and FX: Will BoJ allow government bond yields to rise further?
Monday Oct 30, 2023
Monday Oct 30, 2023
It is a big week for central banks with rate decisions from Bank of Japan, the Fed, and Bank of England. In all cases, the central banks are expected make no changes to their policy rate, but Bank of Japan might tweak their yield-curve-control allowing the Japanese government bond yields to rise above 1%; the ceiling on Japanese bond yields was raised back in July by 0.5%-points. We also talk about the UK economy where inflation is still running hot, Eurozone inflation figures, and lastly the Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Thursday Oct 26, 2023
Commodities: Gold defies rising bond yields, but why?
Thursday Oct 26, 2023
Thursday Oct 26, 2023
Today we talk about rising gold prices despite rising yields in a move that smells of investors seeking hedging for a financial system in which something could soon break due to rising bond yields. We also talk about the oil market and how it is perceiving supply disruptions amid the escalating war between Hamas and Israel. Finally, we touch on the strong gains in soft commodities such as orange juice, cocoa touching a 44-year high, and sugar touching a 12-year high, with Peter Garnry and Ole S Hansen.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Wednesday Oct 25, 2023
Equities: Q3 earnings, China restart, and the robust economy
Wednesday Oct 25, 2023
Wednesday Oct 25, 2023
Today we discuss the Q3 earnings season and in particularly earnings yesterday from Microsoft and Alphabet (Google) with Microsoft being the big winner according to investors as the cloud business grew faster than estimated at 24% y/y while Google's cloud business disappointed. On a positive note, advertising revenue growth from both Google and Snap suggest that companies remain positive on their outlook for the economy. In China, Xi Jinping visited the PBoC for the first during his leadership and new economic aid measures are being launched, but the market is still not buying the turnaround case on China. Finally, we talk about the recent economic figures confirming a robust US economy and early signs that Europe's economy might be turning around, with Peter Garnry.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Tuesday Oct 24, 2023
Fixed-income: ECB pause, Treasury auctions, and yield curve positioning
Tuesday Oct 24, 2023
Tuesday Oct 24, 2023
The ECB is expected to maintain its policy rate on Thursday but the room for maneuver is tight for the ECB with the European economy in contraction and inflation remaining stubbornly high. Add to this rising US bond yields, potential tweak to BoJ yield-curve-control and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While the ECB is in pause mode it it not a pleasant one. We also discuss this week's Treasury auctions for clues about positioning of bond investors on the yield curve and with recent weak Treasury auctions this week's auction could prove important. Finally, we discuss the different options investors have on the US yield curve depending on portfolio objectives, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Monday Oct 23, 2023
Macro and FX: USD strength to get tested
Monday Oct 23, 2023
Monday Oct 23, 2023
The US economy has been the big positive this year defying every forecast but can this exceptional run in the US economy continue? We discuss that and also what this week's US GDP and PCE reports could mean for the USD. In today's podcast we also discuss carry trades in CHF and MXN, and the upcoming ECB rate decision on Thursday which is expected to be a non-event. UK jobs report is out tomorrow ahead of next week's BoE meeting. Finally, we talk about the Australian economy and the upcoming inflation report and how it could move the AUD, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Thursday Oct 12, 2023
Commodities: Gold likes peak rates and is the oil market running out of steam?
Thursday Oct 12, 2023
Thursday Oct 12, 2023
Falling bond yields the past week and the market positioning itself for 'peak rates' have seen gold bid. We discuss the different aspect of why gold could extend its momentum and what to look out for. The terrible developments in the Middle East have also pushed the oil market into a more volatile situation but still limited upside from here due to spare production capacity. In natural gas we of course discuss the latest developments including the leak on the Baltic natural gas pipeline, and finally we discuss crops from soybean and wheat that are seeing weak prices due to stronger production from major suppliers, with Peter Garnry and Ole S Hansen.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Wednesday Oct 11, 2023
Equities: Is the mojo back? Novo Nordisk keeps surprising and Tesla earnings showdown
Wednesday Oct 11, 2023
Wednesday Oct 11, 2023
A lot of action has come back in equities with the latest move lower in the US 10-year yield following geopolitical events in the Middle East pushing equities higher again. We also debate the 'higher for longer' narrative and whether the backdrop for equities is actually okay given the US economic strength. We also talk about Novo Nordisk that again has released another very positive trial data now related to kidney failure sending its shares higher while the world's largest dialysis provider Fresenius Medical Care has seen its share tumble as much as 24%. Finally, we go through the upcoming earnings on Friday from US banks such as JPMorgan Chase and next week's earnings from Tesla, ASML, Netflix, and American Express. Especially Tesla earnings will be important for sentiment in equities and the latest price cuts may be a warning of weakening demand for electric vehicles, with Peter Garnry and Oskar Bernhardtsen.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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