Saxo Market Call

Equities: Red flags in IPOs, low volatility in US equities, and earnings to watch

With the market waiting for central bank rate decisions this week we take a step back and zoom in other parts of the equity market. We discuss the several red flags in the Instacart IPO and the extremely elevated forward valuation of Arm which is three times that of the Nasdaq 100. Realized volatility has lately been very low in the US equity market and investors might begin considering adding some hedges to their portfolio which can be done in different ways, and finally we discuss the three most important earnings releases next week from Micron Technology, H&M, and Nike, with Peter Garnry.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Fixed-income: The US 10-year yield is on the loose

The US 10-year yield is breaking on a combination of improved economic activity in the US since May and recently a rally in oil lifting energy prices and inflation expectations. We talk about the upside and downside case on bonds, and finally we talk about interest rates in Europe and why higher bond yields in Europe are sending a different signal than in the US, with Peter Garnry and Oskar Bernhardtsen.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Macro and FX: Central banks bonanza this week

A big week ahead for financial markets with central bank decisions from the Fed, BoE, and BoJ with the market expecting no change from the Fed and BoJ, while BoE is expected to follow the ECB decision from last week hiking 25 bps. The economic landscape is getting increasingly difficult for central banks with the recent run-up in energy prices across both oil markets and uranium lifting inflation expectations and bond yields. In this podcast, we talk about the evolving economic landscape in the context of this week's major central bank decision. The key for investors will be the details in the forward-looking language and forecasts rather than the actual decision, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Commodities: Oil rally raises stagflation risks and yuan’s correlation to copper

Brent crude is marching on as Saudi Arabia keeps the oil market tight raising the risks of stagflation in both Europe and the US. Will the current oil price curtail demand and will China begin tapping into its reserves? Copper has recently been supported by China's efforts to strengthen the yuan. We also talk about how copper is still structurally attractive giving the ongoing electrification, EV adoption and China stimulus. Finally, we go through the key movers in the Bloomberg Commodity Index, with Peter Garnry and Oskar Bernhardtsen.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Equities: Energy on the move, Europe’s ”EV war” with China, and FedEx earnings

Oil prices are moving higher on Saudi Arabia's oil production cuts. This is naturally adding tailwinds to energy stocks which are quickly catching up with the rest of the global equity market. We discuss energy stocks and their attractive valuations. The market for electric vehicles is being flooded with cheap Chinese EVs to a degree where the EU is now launching an investigation into Chinese subsidies for EVs lifting European carmakers and surpressing Chinese EV-makers. Finally, we talk about next week's earnings from FedEx will provide information on how the global economy and whether the outlook for global goods transportation is improving or not, with Peter Garnry and Oskar Bernhardtsen.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Fixed-income: A hawkish pause from ECB and attractive risk-reward in bonds

In today's podcast on fixed-income we preview the ECB rate decision on Thursday on the back of a recent stagflation outlook from the EU Commission making the policy decision a difficult one. We argue for a hawkish pause with the potential move by the ECB to stop reinvestments into the PEPP facility. Based on a slowing economy and stagflation light outlook we go through why both European and US sovereign bonds have an attractive risk-reward ratio, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Macro and FX: King Dollar, pressures on China, and will ECB hike?

In today's podcast on macro and FX we discuss the ongoing strength of USD which is a function of relative weakness in Europe and China, and to what extent the US inflation report on Wednesday will impact the USD trade. China has been in focus a lot lately as its real estate sector is in a deep crisis, but last week a ban of Apple's iPhones brought geopolitics back into focus. We also discuss what China's next potential policy move is to offset the recent weakness and how we should think about the weekend's G20 meeting with China's Xi Jinping not showing up. Finally, we discuss Europe's economy, inflation outlook and the tough decision for ECB on Thursday given the slowing growth and stubborn inflation, with Peter Garnry and Charu Chanana.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Commodities: Crude’s artificial tightness, uranium and gold in focus

In today's podcast on commodities with discuss the recent rise in oil prices driven by an artificial tightness and what it means for the oil industry but also the economy. Our nuclear power equity theme basket was the performance winner August and today we discuss the underlying drivers for uranium and the nuclear power industry, and finally we touch on gold and silver on which we are patiently bullish given our stagflation call, with Peter Garnry and Ole S. Hansen.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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