Saxo Market Call

Geopolitics and FOMC desperation to ditch the dot plot

Link to John's Mastering FX Webinar tomorrow Thursday, June 19.

Today, a look at how this Israel-Iran conflict moves toward a "conclusion", with the risk that Israel has maximalist goals leaning toward regime change, so the timeline of the conflict is more likely to remain extended. Elsewhere, we look at the FOMC meeting today and the likely outcomes, as well as how the market "pricing" of the Fed's policy trajectory may be very misleading on what actually happens. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

Geopolitics derails risk sentiment, but for how long?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/4jP99HK  -

Today we talk through the impact across markets from Israel's attacks on Iran and how difficult it is to sustain a focus on geopolitics or trust the knee-jerk reaction. We also discuss what was happening before the geopolitical situation suddenly heated up as fresh weak US labor market data sent the USD overboard - or did it? A preview of the massive week ahead in macro event risks, the latest on the commodities space and much more on today's pod, which features Saxo Head of Commodities Strategy Ole Hansen, with Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy hosting.

 

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Bearish conviction rising again. Can the Fed cut as early as July?

Today, can't help but turn more bearish on equities as the US trade policy issue finally adds some more bite and as the broader concern on the trajectory of the US economy may be picking up here. The US dollar is certainly headed south versus the euro again, and USDJPY is making a show of selling off - can the move stick this time? Thoughts on the Fed possibly cutting earlier than expected, Oracle blowout earnings and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

 

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AI theme reheating as Trump coalition fragility a rising talking point

Today a quick update on another strong day for risk sentiment as the AI focus is reheating with a significant rise in AI commitments from Meta and even Intel showing signs of life. Also, a quick rundown on the important of today's US CPI release for May and some thoughts on what is at stake here if Trump's coalition is increasingly fragile and the implications if so. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

John's final article in four-part series on Rules for the Trump 2.0 Market Era.

 

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Paging the next catalyst, please!

Today we look at a market that shows signs of lower volatility and rising complacency as we wonder what will provide the next catalyst - perhaps tomorrow's US May CPI release? Also, some thoughts on whether Trump's "madman" strategy is the right way to view what he is doing in trade negotiations. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy, John J. Hardy.

Link to John's latest FX Update  (From June 10)

 

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Silver rips as Musk-Trump bromance trips

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ZlIZVD 

Today, we look at whether the major Musk-Trump rift was one of the chief drivers of weak risk sentiment in US markets yesterday even beyond the Tesla fallout, as we also got further evidence of weak US labor market data. In markets, the standout development was silver ripping through resistance and posting new 13-year highs. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen, hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

 

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Crossfire hurricane ahead of US jobs report

Today, we discuss yesterday's weak US numbers cratering the US dollar, if once again not decisively, and boosting US treasuries. Equities provided little inspiration and it feels like the market is at a loss with what to do here with a crossfire of three massive issues possibly pulling things in very different directions. Today's podcast hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

 

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Trump doesn't like TACO. USD breaking down?

Today, a look at global equities and the US dollar on tilt as a new week and a new month get underway as geopolitical and trade tensions ratchet higher again, especially on Trump's doubling of steel and aluminum tariffs (was this in response to his finding out about the "TACO trade"? (Trump Always Chickens Out)). A rundown of the raft of the key US data up this week ahead and more also on the pod, which is hosted today by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.

John's latest FX Update. 

 

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.

Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.

Click here to open an account with Saxo.