Saxo Market Call

Dark clouds are forming as equities extend declines

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3R8qkGG   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo  - 

Today we discuss the continuing declines in equities as US leading indicators are now fast approaching negative suggesting heightened risk of a recession in 6-9 months from now. Overnight in Asia weak PMI figures from South Korea and China confirmed our recent worries of the economic slowdown materialising broadly. We also discuss Europe's electricity market which seems to have been taken over by speculation and is not working properly. In FX we highlight the recent strength of the EUR and the dismal weakness of the GBP. Higher interest rates are also hurting silver and gold extending the negative momentum. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

US sentiment brightens, jobs market still looks strong

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3RgnLlG   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo  - 

Today we discuss a weak US equity market session yesterday as sentiment bounced more than expected in August, at least according to the Conference Board US Consumer Confidence survey. We also look at a far better expansion in Job openings than expected and an interesting measure of "sticky CPI" that continues to rise in the US. In commodities, we discuss the drop in oil prices, and plans possibly afoot in Europe to cap power prices. The equities focus is on BYD, Chinese lithium names, and MongoDB. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

High energy costs will crowd out discretionary spending

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ct6WF6   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo  - 

Today we look at the lackluster session yesterday as risk sentiment found relief after the brief wipeout in the wake of the Fed Chair Powell speech on Friday. Helping to ease pressure on sentiment were the USD halting its rise and US yields easing back lower. In commodities, we look at the latest on the natural gas situation in Europe as Russia is set to shut down a key pipeline for purported maintenance. The corn and wheat outlook, pressure on discretionary spending and related consumer discretionary stocks due to soaring energy prices, upcoming earnings reports and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Market stumbles after Powell’s Jackson Hole speech

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3PVsg3N   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo  - 

Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech was credited with triggering the ugly slide in equities and broader risk sentiment on Friday, but the modest reaction in US treasury yields suggests that the Fed was only moderately more hawkish than anticipated. Regardless, the market slide has already developed ugly momentum and could test next supports if US data this week continues to support higher yields and a stronger US dollar, an important financial condition in its own right. We also discuss the latest commodity price developments and weak precious metals on the stronger US dollar and remarkably persistent view that hefty disinflation is just around the corner. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Market not fearing Powell’s Jackson Hole musings

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3PVmpvg   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo  - 

Today we offer our latest musings on Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Fed conference today and whether Powell is ready to wax as hawkish as some of his colleagues on the Fed, with the bar somewhat high to impress still very easy financial conditions, perhaps. We also look at the latest on natural gas volatility risk, also due to vastly higher weighting in commodities funds, the contribution and importance of earnings as an inflation drive, FX themes and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Going nuclear

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3dOkOtP   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo  - 

As we wait for the Fed Chair Powell speech at Jackson Hole and whether he can really bring anything new to the table, we look at the latest pressure on the already dire energy situation in Europe, the surprise indication from Japan of a strategic move in favor of nuclear, the latest earnings reports from Nvidia, Salesforce and Snowflake, and earnings reports ahead. In FX, we focus on the possible current account focus and possible repricing of AUDNZD significantly above its range of the last many years. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Crude oil bounce extends. Zany mismatch in US Services sector surveys.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3dPDl9d   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo  - 

A zany day for US data as the August flash S&P Global Services PMI suggests a deepening contraction is afoot in the US services sector after an already weak July reading that contrasted with strength in the ISM Services survey for July. What are we supposed to believe. Elsewhere, crude oil has cemented its comeback with an extension higher yesterday and coffee is at risk of a further rise on supply woes. In equities, we look at the latest in the Tesla/Twitter saga, earnings ahead including NVidia after the close today, and an interesting company in the EV batter supply chain in Europe. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Cybersecurity is a growth industry. EURUSD dives below parity.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3dU7G6M   -

Click here to open an account with Saxo  - 

The downside momentum in the equity market picked up pace yesterday as US yields continue to rise and the US dollar rose well above parity versus the euro and GBPUSD posted new cycle lows as Europe's energy woes continue. Elsewhere, oil prices have perked up as Saudi joins the Saxo Market Call in noting the disparity in the very tight physical market while the futures market appears complacent. In equities, cyber-security company Palo Alto reported strong earnings as cyber-security is set to remain a growth industry for years. More earnings and equity themes on the radar, FX developments, grains and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic