Saxo Market Call

A very uneasy feeling ahead of the weekend

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3UOp3ql   -

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Today we look at the market stumbling once again just a day after recovering on the stabilization of global bond markets, in part on rising geopolitical unease linked to Russia, most easily spotted in CEE currencies. Sentiment also dipped on the world's largest company, Apple, seeing its shares trashed in yesterday's session on concerns for the company's growth. A startling outlook from Micron and other weak earnings results also weighed. Elsewhere, we note the interesting weakness in the US dollar as global yields were a pocket of relative calm as risk sentiment deteriorated, a shift from recent behavior. Crude oil, natural gas, metals, thoughts on whether the USD is turning here and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Is the Bank of England the canary in the coal mine?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ftTwtN   -

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Today we discuss the Bank of England's announcement of emergency QE yesterday, and how the impact of that on not just UK, but also, global yields impacted risk sentiment yesterday. Arguably, the UK is merely the weakest link and the BoE's actions might have to be repeated elsewhere - but on what time frame? We also look at the impact on gold, the latest on crude oil and the natural gas supply situation for Europe this winter even without any Russian gas deliveries, and much more. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Are equities and treasuries set for correlation jump?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Rp7o5z   -

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Today, a look at the US 10-year Treasury benchmark reaching the 4.0% milestone for the first time for this cycle after a remarkable surge in yields in recent weeks. It's worth considering the 1987 experience of bond markets flip-flopping in their correlation with equities and whether we could be set for a similar flip-flop if risk sentiment worsens further. Also, note that many speculative corners of the market were bid yesterday even as the action soured late and worsened still overnight as the US dollar continued surging - especially against the Chinese yuan overnight. Much more on today's pod, which is a solo flight with John J. Hardy hosting.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Markets at pivot point

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3xSnZYU   -

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Today we look at the equity market's precise test of the cycle lows yesterday and brightening sentiment overnight, despite the fresh surge in US treasury yields and the US dollar yesterday. An increasingly inverted VIX forward curve suggests that the market low may be close in time, if possibly not in price. We also look at signals from the US Consumer Confidence as the September reading is due today, break down broader commodity performance since commodities peaked, update the crude oil outlook after the recent price plunge, highlight upcoming event risks on the economic calendar and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

What shape capitulation for equities? Sterling bites the dust.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3CbVNT2   -

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Today we look at very weak global sentiment as the US dollar and US treasury yields continue to soar, taking US equities to the key cycle lows as we wonder what shape the capitulation will take - a quick test and reverse or a more profound move driven by poor liquidity? Elsewhere, we note sterling's historic drop and suggest that it is time for the Bank of England to step in with an emergency rate hike - or else. Crude oil, gold, stocks to watch today (including Apple with some concern around iPhone 14 orders) and more are on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Historic BoJ intervention and dramatic moves in US yields

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3BYiSaT   -

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Equities are sliding further yesterday and today as the market is rattled by sizeable upwards moves in the long end of the US yield curve with the US 10-year pushing beyond 3.7%. We also go through the series of central bank events yesterday from various rate decisions and most importantly the historic JPY intervention by the Bank of Japan. In addition we take a look at commodities and in particularly the European gas market which is set for its fourth straight weekly loss. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John Hardy on FX and hosting.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Hawkish FOMC puts market on edge

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3r040Du   -

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The FOMC delivered a hawkish message to the market sending equities and bonds lower. Russia also announced a partial mobilization of its reservists increasing the stake in its war in Ukraine impacting commodities. We go through the details of yesterday's FOMC decision and details, and what knock-on effects they have caused throughout the various markets. We also discuss BOJ's decision to stay firm on its rate policy putting more pressure on JPY. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole Hansen on commodities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

How does Fed surprise on hawkish side tonight?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Bwpyws   -

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Today we look at markets trading nervously ahead of tonight's FOMC meeting, as we wonder how the Fed can maintain a hawkish tone relative even to the recent sharp rise in expectations. The new "dot plot" forecasts for the Fed funds rate by the end of this year will be key on that front on top of whether the Fed hikes 100 basis points or the more likely 75 basis points today. We also look at the immediate impact on sentiment in Europe and on wheat as Russia has announced a partial mobilization this morning . Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic