Saxo Market Call

Eyeing quarter-end as next test for this market

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Today we remind of the upcoming quarter-end, both as the quarterly transition proved pivotal as Q1 yielded to Q2 and the equity market rolled over aggressively from a strong rally to a renewed and sustained sell-off. A look at conflicting signals from key commodities markets including copper, cotton and crude oil, discussion of Nike's outlook and the upcoming General Mills earnings, perspectives on today's June Consumer Confidence release and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Technically and seasonally pivotal week ahead

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Today we discuss Friday's huge equity market rally and its likely proximate causes, especially the revision lower of a key US inflation expectations survey. Looking ahead, we consider the importance of the quarterly roll this week after a horrific quarter for equities as of last week's lows that may be driving rebalancing flows. As well, options exposures may be a key driver into quarter end. We also discuss the mounting impact of quantitative tightening in the weeks ahead, the outlook for the Q2 earnings season with a few interesting names reporting out-of-synch earnings this week, the US dollar and the macro calendar ahead as the ECB hosts a three day conference starting today. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Yield plunge lifts equities out of the abyss

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Today we look back at yesterday's historic session with big moves lower in the US and German 2-year yields responding to PMI figures for June indicating a more rapid decline in economic activity than estimated by economists. This is naturally lifting the recession probability and the timing of it causing safe-haven flows into bonds. The most interest rate sensitive parts of the equity market were the winners yesterday such as biotechnology and bubble stocks. Across currencies we observe weakness in the USD, AUD, and NOK reflecting lower economic activity, and the pressure is also coming of the JPY due to yesterday's rates move. On commodities we touch on the weakness in wheat and the tight physical market in oil. Other topics covered are the guidance cut from Zalando and container freight rates coming down. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole Hansen on commodities.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Don’t look now, here comes coal!

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Today we look at commodity markets continuing lower, with crude oil joining in the sell-off with sudden fury yesterday before bouncing. Elsewhere, the dire natural gas situation in Europe risks worsening further and is reviving the outlook for what few remaining coal related equities are left standing. Elsewhere, we talk recession risks, AUD under pressure on the commodity theme, equity earnings and macro calendar risks on the radar and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Commodities rout points to recession fears

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Today we note the whiplash-inducing turnaround in sentiment after yesterday's squeeze higher in US equities failed to spark any new positive tone in Asia, where an ugly slide in risk sentiment unfolded overnight, led by a steep sell-of in South Korean equities, as the country and its markets are at the intersection of many interesting themes. Elsewhere, an acceleration of the negative momentum in key commodities suggest that market is beginning to call a recession. Stocks to watch, the macro calendar, currencies and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

BoJ losing control. Geopolitical risks for Tesla.

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Today we continue our discussion on where markets are headed over the summer: into a period of calm, driven by an easing of the rise in yields and hopes for cooling inflation as economic data softens, or are we set for more shocks ahead on a fresh rise in especially US yields and the associated pressure on global financial conditions and risk sentiment? We also look at the geopolitical risks for Tesla due to Elon Musk's non-Tesla activities, discuss falling commodity prices as copper trades at important support, fresh pressure on the JPY as BoJ is losing control of its balance sheet and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Can bears go into hibernation for the summer?

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Today we look at the market hitting fresh lows late last week and debate whether some relief from falling bond yields and a sell-off in energy prices might bring some relief to this market, even if the sources of that relief are concerns that a recession is incoming. We also discuss inflationary pressures set to continue from the steep rise in US rents, look at crude oil and commodity performance broadly, the lay of the land in FX after a remarkable week, and where are are focusing on earnings and on the macro calendar this week. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

The BoJ is not for turning.

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Today we discuss the Bank of Japan maintaining its policy stance overnight as it continues to swim against the stream of global central bank tightening, leading to a sharp new JPY weakening move. This contrasts with the Swiss National Bank's large hike yesterday, which has driven a tremendous CHF rally, not least in USDCHF. Also, weak US data drives a drop in US treasury yields, where is the equity market focus: bond yields per se or on recession risks? Natural gas, gold, crude oil, metals, stocks to watch, upcoming earnings reports and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic