Saxo Market Call

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LwsIpc   -

Today we look at the US equity still poised just under key cycle resistance, although the narrow rally in megacap names had the Nasdaq 100 testing new cycle highs over he last couple of days. We look at FX developments, including a surprise RBA rate hike overnight and an extension of the aggressive JPY sell-off which has taken USDJPY to critical resistance just ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow. On that front, we wonder whether the Fed delivering the expected pivot to a glide path on rates could prove a "sell-the-fact" setup, noting at least that is far cheaper to hedge downside risk with much lower implied options volatility. Incoming earnings, including from AMD, the macro calendar ahead and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LGbXJm   -

Today we look at the US equity market closing up against cycle resistance as earnings season has impressed and as the market seems in a celebratory mood on the prospects for the Fed pivot to a glide path this week after an anticipated 25 basis point hike, currently priced as the final hike for the cycle. Elsewhere, we look at FX, where the JPY continues to suffer a drubbing, and at position in US FX futures, which show the EURUSD position stretched. Notably EURJPY is hitting its highest levels in almost 15 years. Grains, crude oil, incoming earnings reports and the macro calendar for the week ahead and more all on today's podcast, which features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/449Xw7u   -

Today we look at the market zipping back higher as the busiest day of the earnings season impressed even if Amazon's guidance spooked after the close. We also look at a very dovish Bank of Japan meeting as it sets itself up for a very leisurely policy review. The ability for the JPY to drop further will quickly depend on whether yields elsewhere turn higher again, however. A discussion of whether Germany increasingly sees China as a rival, industrial metals and food commodities and much more also on the call. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Lc0O1x   -

Today we look at a bit of deja vu all over again as we saw a negative session yesterday in the US followed by a megacap - this time Meta - reporting after hours. We note that regional bank stocks continue to struggle at cycle lows. Some of the weak sentiment yesterday was on the Republicans passing their spending bill in the House that would lift the debt limit, but with no one having a clue on next steps as this bill is dead-on-arrival in the Senate, much less Biden's desk. Elsewhere, crude oil dropped sharply again, while gold is sticky near 2,000. Today brings perhaps the busiest earnings report calendar of the season, while the first BoJ meeting with Governor Ueda at the helm is up tomorrow. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Nh6xG0   -

Today we look at the sharp sell-off in US equities in the cash session yesterday, in part on a weak April US Consumer Confidence reading, but also noting the big sentiment shift back to the positive side after hours on Microsoft and Alphabet reported earnings. It is also difficult to discern how much the US debt ceiling issue is weighing on the US treasury market (and therefore supporting the Japanese yen yesterday). Elsewhere, we look at metals and crude oil and stocks to watch, rounding up major companies reporting and previewing Meta reporting today after the close. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LqrFbg   -

Today we look at the most rangebound US market since late 2021 and wonder what will spark the next momentum move in either direction as we note the confusing evidence that various macro data points are throwing off about the US economy. We also note the increasingly downbeat earnings outlook from analysts and the huge incoming load of earnings reports, including from Microsoft and Alphabet today after the close. In commodities, we look at investor flows and the latest declines in wheat prices, while the weak US dollar is really mostly a strong Euro at the moment. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LoIaEG   -

Today we look at global markets in very different places as slumping commodities are a huge question mark on the quality of the recovery and the China re-opening story, while Europe has gunned to within reach of all time (non-inflation adjusted) highs. Meanwhile, the debt ceiling concern level continues to intensify while we try to identify the next steps this week that will determine whether the odds for a mishap are rising or falling. For equities, this week brings the heart of earnings season, with a long list of megacaps and bellwether names reporting. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3UWzOYn   -

Today features Saxo Chief Investment Officer Steen Jakobsen. In the market wrap session, we take a look at market sentiment softening, in part on soft US data and Tesla's very bad day, but perhaps as well as the debt ceiling crunch time is drawing nearer and is finding expression in corners of the markets. We also take a look at crude oil retreating further, while iron ore spilled lower again confounding the China re-opening bulls. Steen takes us through his thoughts on the debt ceiling issue, the China re-opening story, but especially the market's nervousness as geopolitical tectonic plates are shifting, as we discuss the recent seminal speech from ECB President Lagarde on "Central Banks in a fragmenting world" and all of its geopolitical and policy implications, adding to that US President Biden's setting up the May 19-21 G-7 meeting in Japan as a key incoming event risk on possible further moves against investment in China. Today's pod also features Ole Hansen on commodities, with John J. Hardy hosting.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Click here to open an account with Saxo   -

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic