Saxo Market Call

Where have all the bulls gone?

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3M8KIEG   -

Today we assess a strong market comeback yesterday on little news, but certainly with a strong dip in crude oil prices providing a bit of a tailwind, as well, perhaps as an incredible lack of bullish sentiment according to at least one weekly US survey. We also discuss the prospects for Netflix after the company announced a drop in subscribers and shares were marked down heavily in after hours trading late yesterday. The sharp weakening move in CNH, whether CHF is set to move sharply in the wake of the French presidential run-off this Sunday, gold and crude oil, more earnings previews and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Equity markets are down heavily - against commodities.

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3JOz4NC   -

Today we remind equity traders to keep in mind that nominal equity prices are one thing as the Nasdaq 100 index in the US, for example, manages to hang on near pivotal levels, while equity levels versus something like a basket of commodities paint a very different picture. We also look at the latest moves in the key commodities, preview the earnings and macro calendar for the week ahead and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Special edition featuring Christopher Dembik

Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3uySr8Z   -

Today's special edition podcast features Saxo Macro Strategist Christopher Dembik, who takes us through his latest thoughts on the upcoming second round of the French presidential election, the outlook for the French political landscape after the June legislative election and the ECB's challenges on the stagflationary Euro Zone economic outlook. A few thoughts on EM and other topics on this special edition pod, which is hosted by John J. Hardy.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Does the strong USD eventually require the Fed to cap long yields?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3rjR24k   -

Today's podcast features Saxo CIO and Chief Economist Steen Jakobsen as we look at the dangers for equities given the backdrop of de-globalization and pressures from rising rates, discuss what the Fed may have to do if long treasury yields rise much further and what that could mean for the US dollar. We also discuss the outlook for Europe and the euro and much more. This pod hosted by John J. Hardy.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

For stocks, is this 2008 USA or 1922 Germany or 1923 Germany?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/38Lgauf   -

Today's podcast looks at the latest weak session for global equity markets, the potential mindset on inflationary risks having possibly pivoted as shown in the US yield curve as the Fed may be irrevocably behind the curve for now. What this could mean for equities in terms of historic market parallels is explored - particularly the interesting way that German equities were valued during the varying phases of the early 1920's hyperinflation. Today's pod is a one-man show with John J. Hardy, head of FX Strategy.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Many irons in the fire even as French election fails to add to volatility.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3DYjcqo   -

Today we run down the factors that are pressuring market sentiment, even as the first round of the French Presidential election failed to trigger any immediate further EU existential concerns as the results largely were in line with expectations. Still, the second round is not a done deal for Macron, as we discuss on today's pod in breaking down voter intentions for the second round, Le Pen's strong momentum and her appeal to younger voters and possibly to many undecided voters in the final instance. Today's pod features Macro Strategist Christopher Dembik and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Gray rhino watching in France this weekend

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/37yqHIM   -

Today we discuss the French presidential election risk exploding onto the market's radar screens this week and the gap-risk for the euro and other assets over the weekend if the right populist Le Pen posts a strong showing in the first round. Any indication that Le Pen has rising odds of becoming the next French president is a proper Gray Rhino event that would act as a powerful check on the recent EU narrative of tighter EU integration post the Russian invasion of Ukraine and will have European investors holding their collective breath over the next two weeks until the second round vote. We also talk crude oil, natural gas at near-14-year highs in the US, grains, earnings season kicking off next week and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

The great twin tightening is barreling down on us

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3DRPTpt   -

Today we look at the continued pressure on risk sentiment after the FOMC minutes show the Fed discussing a rapid pace of quantitative tightening that is set to phase in after the May 4 FOMC meeting and, together with US treasury net issuance, will mean an annual run rate of $2-2.5 trillion in liquidity tightening for financial markets. Financial conditions have been responding accordingly, a dangerous development for equity markets if the tightening continues apace. The US dollar has jumped back higher over the last couple of sessions against riskier currencies and the oil market may be responding to that as well as to demand reductions from Chinese lockdowns and an incoming flood of supply from further reserve releases. Copper, Facebook and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic