Saxo Market Call

A climax reversal for equities after Powell gets nod for a second term

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3FHnphQ   -

Today we look at the market reaction to US President Biden giving Fed Chair Powell teh nod for a second term, while promoting Lael Brainard to Vice Chair. The most interesting reactions were in the US yield curve as a faster pace of Fed tightening was priced  in for next year, but also in the US equity market, which experienced a climax reversal back lower after an initial surge higher in the wake of the Powell nomination news. Elsewhere, oil set for an interesting test as Biden may be set  to announce a release . And in sovereign  bond markets, besides the US treasury focus after the news yesterday, focus is also on Europe as we may be set for a German government coalition announcement as Italian risks also weigh on President Mattarella's imminent resignation. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

US Thanksgiving week features key Wednesday event risks

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/2Z9fkTx   -

Today we look at the lay of the equity market coming into this week, where we continue to note considerable market  divergences, recapping the points from Friday, including the narrow market rally. We also look at whether credit spreads for high yield corporates are finally starting to deserve some attention. Focus in commodities on oil and especially gold this week as it is do-or-die time for bullish newcomers after the recent rally spike. The week ahead is a short one for US-based traders, with the Fed Chair nomination issue hanging over the market and the two key event risks for the week up on Wednesday, just before the long holiday weekend there. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Special Edition: The big picture w/ Steen Jakobsen

This special edition of the Saxo Market Call podcast is a long-form chat with Steen Jakobsen, Saxo's Chief Economist and CIO, who takes us through what makes him uneasy about the market today and where it is trading and current narratives relative to what likely awaits in terms of inflation and real growth outcomes down the road.  The Fed's policy mistake, FX themes, dysfunction in Europe and more are addressed in the conversation with Steen and host John J. Hardy. 

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Divergences suggest at least tactical correction risk

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3qQI8M5   -

Today we run through some stark divergences as the US equity market posts new highs, noting weak breadth and other indicators that in the past have suggested higher risk of an episode of consolidation. We also look at interesting signs in the T-bill auctions that the market remains wary of the debt ceiling situation that hasn't yet gone away. Also, a look at crude oil, gold and rising food prices, the macro calendar for the week ahead and more. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Time to take off some risk

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/30zbljw   -

Today we issue another general note of caution on the status of global equity markets, which look stretched even if there are rational (real yields) and especially seasonal narratives in support of recent developments. Elsewhere, we dive into Amazon's broadside against Visa, whether that company and Mastercard could see eventual pressure on margins, other key equity stories and earnings, the dire potential supply situation for European natural gas, the very weak euro and a weak German 30-year bond auction, US treasuries and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Watching whether Euro crisis waxes existential

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3Duesb5   -

Today we look at a fresh major spike in natural gas prices in Europe driving new concerns for the European economy and for the euro itself, which has lost significant further altitude. We also ponder where to look if EU outlook concerns turn more existential rather than merely a question of "relative outlook". The latest on crude oil, spiking coffee prices, US retail sales data and how to interpret it and much more on today's pod, which features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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USD rally extension would be a big problem.

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3owExjp   -

Today we look at the importance of yields for next steps in the equity market, covering the US, UK and German sovereign yields, but also highlight the pain trade of the US dollar extending higher from here, looking at the interesting divergence in our global risk indicator relative to the elevated equity market, the output gap in the US being fully closed, Fed policy mistake, stocks and earnings in the spotlight today and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Lower real rates support TINA narrative for stocks

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3kDi03f   -

Today we look at how the US equity market finished on a strong note despite the hot US CPI print last week bringing Fed rate hike expectations forward and the latest US sentiment survey suggesting that consumer sentiment is in the dumps. We also look at the earnings highlights for the week ahead, particularly for important Chinese names, the latest on energy prices, especially the natural gas situation in Europe and the escalating geopolitical situation on the EU's borders and in Ukraine and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic