Saxo Market Call

US CPI, FOMC Minutes and Chinese PPI on tap

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3aNeqi1   -

Today we look at the latest choppy session and the important day ahead, with the September US CPI print on tap later today, followed by the FOMC minutes as the Fed is set to taper at its next meeting, and then the important Chinese PPI up in Asia, an important global inflation benchmark. The oil market is still supported by natural gas prices at current levels and will watch the latest OPEC and IEA oil outlooks closely today. Copper, grains, GBP, Apple production woes on chip shortages, a look ahead at US financials and other companies report and more also on the call. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

This market still looks very complacent

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/2X2cfne   -

Today we continue to outline our laundry list of concerns as the energy crunch continues its vice grip and as bonds are providing zero offsetting returns when equities come under pressure, and yet the VIX forward curve suggests ongoing complacency. We also look at yields and yield curves, which continue to suggest that markets don't believe central banks are at risk of making a policy mistake. In FX, we zoom in on the sterling outlook, while earnings season is heating up in the US, with an interesting company Fastenal reporting today.  Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Special Guest: Tor Svelland

This is a special edition podcast with Tor Svelland of Svelland Capital. Tor is a trader and investor in energy, shipping, commodities and related equities with a tremendously deep background in the space. In this interview, Tor takes us through the factors that are pressuring global commodity prices higher, particularly in energy, metals and shipping and takes us through the argument that prices will likely have to go much higher still to attract the kind of investment needed to raise production and carry out the desired transformation of our energy base. Hosting this must-listen interview are Ole Hansen and John J. Hardy.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

It‘s getting very expensive out there

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3AuW5Ao   -

Today we look at commodity inflation pressures dominating the agenda ahead of what could prove the most interesting earnings season in years as companies will have to discuss pressures on operations from ongoing supply chain disruptions and the risk of sustained prices rises in operational costs from energy prices and even wage and yield pressures. We also pick apart the US September jobs report, where the headline weak growith in payrolls does not reflect a weak jobs market, and where a fresh surge in average hourly earnings suggest wage pressures a rising. FX, the crude oil price impact on fertilizer and more discussed on the today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Oops - if only it were so easy

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3FvCMKY   -

Today a look at a double whammy of direction changes yesterday after energy price relief jolted back to new concerns as oil rushed back toward the highs and as US yields are pressuring at cycle highs ahead of the key event risk of the week - the US September jobs report. We put special emphasis in that report on the average hourly earnings data perhaps even more than the nonfarm payrolls change. Elsewhere, a look at Bunds yields, comparing junk yields in Europe and UK with those in the US, the latest on natural gas, the macro calendar for the week ahead and more. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Relief rally on deflation of clear and present danger.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Aooxnr   -

Today a look at the significant sentiment shift as a number of issues dogging market confidence have suddenly cleared, if possibly only temporarily, especially the direction of energy prices after a statement from Russian president Vladimir Putin on supplying the market. As well, US Congress looks set to kick the debt ceiling issue out to December. Elsewhere, we look at the possible model for the Chinese approach to troubled companies like Evergrande, the resurgent pound at pivotal levels and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

A pressure cooker of rising energy prices, rising USD and rising yields.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3lc2FHQ   -

Today we look at the ongoing energy crisis, which is spreading more aggressively into oil prices now, scratch our heads at yesterday's attempt to piece together a rally in equities and then the negative sentiment shift overnight and into this morning, with no relief in sight as the USD pulls back stronger, driven in part by rising US treasury yields. A look at interesting policy signals from Prime Minister Boris Johnson in a speech today, inflationary signals from cotton and PepsiCo's guidance on price hikes, the RBNZ sell-the-fact rate hike overnight and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Has equity market sell-off really even started?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3BdZEMz   -

Today we look at the issues that continue to dog this market, with a fresh rush higher in energy prices across the board in the wake of a OPEC+ meeting, as crude oil prices cleared 7-year highs, the US debt ceiling issue still an open question, Japanese equities deflating on new Prime Minister Kishida, and Facebook's no-good, very bad day/week. We also argue that this  sell-off may not have even really gotten started, judging from the forward VIX curve. We also look at PepsiCo as a compelling bellwether, signs of a wobble in EM corporate credit and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic