Saxo Market Call

US-China trade relationship shifts back to the front burner today

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3l5jzHW   -

Today we look an attempt to put together a strong close last week and why markets wilted again overnight, in party on news out of China, but also on sources indicating that the US Trade Representation Katherine Tai is set to say that China is not living up to the terms of the trade deal agreed under the Trump administration. Her appearance today is the first real opportunity to get a temperature check on the Biden administrations attitude and intentions on trade policy with China. Plenty more on the call, including a look at Tesla's impressive Q3 delivery numbers, interesting FX stories for the week ahead and the earnings and macro calendar preview. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Only binary outcomes as we have crossed beyond the volatility event horizon.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2ZDl1sK   -

Today we look at US equity market that has gone over the edge technically and what could come next, given that we have crossed into a volatility event horizon that seems to almost guarantee either a further and accelerating swoon or an almost equally volatile market bounce. We also look into contributing factors that both aggravated the scale of the bull market off the pandemic low and why a sizable percentage of the gains since then are in mortal danger - especially due to the limitations of the physical world and the spiking price of energy, which policy makers can't so easily address as they can liquidity. Today's pod features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen, Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Strong USD makes a loud break higher still.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/39R84xm  -

Today we have a look at bond yields cooling and risk appetite stabilizing and even improving, but with a new injection of energy from the currency market, where a big US dollar breakout is on the loose as key resistance levels gave way and EURUSD pounded down to its lowest levels in well over a year. A strong dollar is a potential new cause for concern if it persists. Elsewhere, we look at real yields rising in sympathy with the latest moves in Treasuries, cratering silver prices as gold hold comparatively firm, possible early signs of a corporate credit wobble, fresh spike in European NatGas prices and now cotton prices spiking and more. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Consolidation, correction or crash?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2Wl1c8j   -

We have no idea where markets are headed, but yesterday saw a new capitulation of sorts in equity markets, particularly for interest rate sensitive stocks, which underperformed a broadly sold market. Key technical levels are dead ahead in the US S&P 500, including the pivot low of the prior sell-off and the 100-day moving average, while we ponder the contributors to this sell-off, spiking yields and especially energy prices, which actually cooled yesterday in the case of crude oil. We also look at the currency market heating up in sympathy with volatile equity markets, gold showing some degree of resilience while sterling was in for a heavy beating, and in equities, we zoom in on Micron and ASML. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Markets are skating on very thin ice

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3idjgco   -

Today we discuss whether the global energy crunch issue, after another day with massive rises in natural gas prices and Brent crude crossing the 80 dollar/barrel threshold, is set to administer a "Eureka moment" to markets and trigger a run for cover. An additional issue that could pressure risky asset valuations is the recent sharp rise in global yields, with US yields leading the way. A look at natural gas, new highs in cotton prices, the US treasury yield levels and an incoming auction today, Polestar going public and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

US treasury yields, fiscal outlook and debt ceiling concerns top the agenda this week

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3uhmfp6   -

Today we look at the latest advance in US equities despite ongoing concerns centered on energy prices and the critical focus this week: the fate of Biden's cornerstone fiscal stimulus initiatives and the onrushing debt ceiling issue as the US government's financial year ends this Thursday. We also have the breakout higher in US long yields to consider this week, with key US and EU inflation. We also have a look at the results of the German election and implications for the formation of a government there, a possible shift in the drivers for precious metals, and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Spike in long yields grabs the spotlight. Huge week ahead.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3o7gdGi   -

Today features Saxo Chief Economist and CIO Steen Jakobsen as we look at the huge spike in longer US treasury yields yesterday and sympathetic moves in EU and UK yields and at what point rising long yields might disrupt an equity market on the comeback trail. We also look at next week's main events, namely a pivotal German election and all that is at stake there, while also pondering the difficult path to additional US fiscal stimulus and this year's iteration of the old debt ceiling issue. Today's pod also features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Hawkish FOMC at the margin, but market focus elsewhere

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/2W45MYu   - 

Today we break down where the FOMC meeting - and really Fed Chair Powell's press conference more specifically - surprised modestly on the hawkish side, but why the market reaction was relatively limited as focus seems elsewhere now, especially on China's Evergrande. Still, the market bulls will have to overcome pivotal resistance in the US equity market that was the support on the way down. We also look at today's Bank of England meeting and why sterling has ignored the recent ramp-up in short UK yields, precious metals and crude oil, equity themes, Nike ahead of today's earnings report and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic