Saxo Market Call

US equity market limping at pivotal levels after sell-off extends

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3VBFGpt   -

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Today we note the US market continuing lower and closing near pivotal level, this time with no notable catalyst driving the selling, as US treasury yields actually dropped at the long end of the US yield curve, taking the yield curve inversion to a new cycle- and multi-decade extreme. It also looks like the easing of China's Covid policy is running out of steam as a factor. In commodities, we look at crude oil plunging to new lows despite alarming supply fundamentals, and wheat prices also on the defensive on unusually elevate export activity for the season. A look at today's Bank of Canada meeting, TSMC making even larger investments in the US, Apple postponing its EV plans and much more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

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Strong ISM Services survey a new bump in the road for bulls

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3P6Apn2   -

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Today we are announcing our newly released 2023 Outrageous Predictions highlighting improbable, but not impossible, events that could really shake the markets. We discuss the reversal in S&P 500 futures to the big 4,000 level driven by a surprise beat on ISM Services Index yesterday suggesting that the US economy is reaccelerating again. The US yield move higher yesterday is also setting the stage for our attention on USDJPY in today's FX focus. On commodities our focus today is on the oil market given the demand uncertainties over China's reopening and supply worries over the Russian oil price cap. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S. Hansen on commodities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

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Financial conditions continue to ease, ease, ease

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3UvXqRy   -

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Today we note that the market seems to be in see-no-evil, hear-no-evil mode, as hot earnings data from the US on Friday was unable to sustain a reaction in treasury yields, with financial conditions at their easiest in months. Still, key economic indicators point to an incoming recession in Europe even as the EURUSD manages to pull above 1.0500. We also preview tonight's RBA meeting, interesting earnings reports this week and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

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Equity markets fail to celebrate latest yield dip on soft US data.

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3XULGef   -

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Today we look at a slight divergence in reaction patterns across markets after a weaker than expected core PCE inflation reading and ISM Manufacturing survey in the US pushed treasury yields and the US dollar lower, but failed to support further equity market upside. Elsewhere, we round up interesting earnings reports from yesterday, discuss silver technicals and the crude oil and natural gas outlook, today's November US jobs report and more.  Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

’Tis the season, or at least the day, to be jolly.

Today's slide deck: http://bit.ly/3OYS9Rp   -

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Today we look at the market exploding higher in the wake of the Fed Chair Powell speech on inflation and the labor market yesterday, as we note that Powell failed to specifically push back much against the current easing of financial conditions and market expectations that Fed policy will be loosening already by late next year and especially in 2024. But we also caution that, while the US equity market rallied through key resistance yesterday, the market has a tendency to react strongly to event risks on the day without notable follow through in following sessions. On that note, we also have important incoming data that can test yesterday's reaction in the form of the October US PCE inflation indicator ahead of tomorrow's US jobs report. We also look at the commodities market reaction to Powell's speech, particularly precious metals and discuss copper in the context of the drumbeat of news pointing to China easing up on Covid policy, as well as crude oil. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Can a hawkish Powell pour cold water on this market?

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3AVTRx9   -

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Today we note that Fed Chair Powell is set to speak later today and will likely try to push back against the recent strong easing of financial conditions and pricing of hefty Fed rate cuts that the market has priced to start as early as late 2023. If Powell can't impress the market, the incoming US data might have to do so, with the November ADP private payrolls up today and the PCE inflation data tomorrow. Elsewhere, we zoom in on the latest on crude oil and commodity performance this month, talk Apple, Crowdstrike and incoming earnings and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

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Markets taking a strong view that Fed will succeed

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3urJOfP   -

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Today we look at the market trying to recover its feet as it hopes that China will remain on the path toward reopening on fresh signs that it wants to avoid curbing activity excessively after recent civil unrest due to Covid restrictions. We also note, ahead of important incoming US data over the next couple of weeks and a Fed Chair Powell speech tomorrow, that the market is taking a very strong view on the path of Fed policy and the economy, assuming the Fed will succeed in its fight against inflation and will cut aggressively in 2024. Will Powell and/or the data challenge this pronounced view? We also look at electricity prices spiking in Europe, crude oil rebounding and wheat falling, stocks to watch and upcoming earnings reports and macro data. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

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China protests are a powerful new distraction

Today's slide deck: http://bit.ly/3AS3mgV   -

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Today we look at how the market is absorbing the news of widespread protests in China against Covid policies there, from lower yields to lower crude oil prices. That combination offers strong support for the Japanese yen, while Apple risks a further haircut on the risk of widening production disruptions. It is worth noting that corn prices in China are diverging from prices elsewhere, also on Covid policy disruptions. Elsewhere, we consider the status of "de-globalization" (or is it re-globalization?), and look at incoming earnings and macro calendar events for the week ahead. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic